luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

UAB at Louisiana, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Louisiana beat UAB 21–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Louisiana was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:56 left): Return touchdown by UAB, worth 15 points of win probability to UAB.

Final

UAB Blazers 14
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 21

September 19, 2026 · Cajun Field · Closing line: Louisiana −7

Luck index +26 Louisiana lucky · −26 UAB

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UAB wins 3, Louisiana wins 7.

  1. 1 UAB 23 UL 7
  2. 2 UAB 10 UL 3
  3. 3 UAB 10 UL 7
  4. 4 UAB 12 UL 14
  5. 5 UAB 9 UL 14
  6. 6 UAB 7 UL 16
  7. 7 UAB 9 UL 21
  8. 8 UAB 3 UL 17
  9. 9 UAB 10 UL 28
  10. 10 UAB 0 UL 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UAB wins 26% of them, Louisiana 74%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UAB by 17+2.5%
UAB by 9–167.0%
UAB by 1–814.0%
Level after regulation5.4%
Louisiana by 1–824.2%
Louisiana by 9–1622.7%
Louisiana by 17+24.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.6 points to Louisiana: the final margin was Louisiana by 7, without the luck Louisiana by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: UAB 9 for 89 yards, Louisiana 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:34 Face Mask on UAB, 15 yards +3% UL +1.6 pts
Q1 9:53 Pass Interference on UAB, 4 yards +10% UL +0.5 pts
Q1 9:53 Pass Interference on UAB, 15 yards +3% UL +2.2 pts
Q1 8:49 Offside on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UAB +0.7 pts
Q1 4:42 Offside on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UL +0.9 pts
Q2 2:50 Holding on UAB, 10 yards +1% UL +0.6 pts
Q2 2:33 Illegal Snap on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UL +0.6 pts
Q2 1:47 Illegal Shift on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UAB +1.0 pts
Q2 1:11 False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAB +0.5 pts
Q3 6:40 False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAB +0.2 pts
Q3 4:37 Illegal Block on Louisiana, 10 yards 0% UAB +0.6 pts
Q3 2:41 Holding on UAB, 10 yards 0% UL +0.6 pts
Q3 1:35 Holding on UAB, 10 yards +1% UL +1.3 pts
Q3 1:27 Roughing the Passer on Louisiana, 15 yards +2% UAB +1.7 pts
Q4 8:16 False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAB +0.8 pts
Q4 4:34 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UAB, 15 yards +1% UL +0.9 pts

When it happened

Louisiana’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Louisiana was ahead in it, below while UAB was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:53 Pass Interference on UAB, 4 yardsJudgment callsPass Interference on UAB, 15 yardsJudgment calls +13% UL UL: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:52 Louisiana converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +5% UAB UL: Punt
3 Q1 4:08 Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedLouisiana fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% UL UL: Punt
4 Q1 0:43 Louisiana converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% UL UL: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:51 Louisiana converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +3% UL UL: Punt
6 Q2 7:56 Louisiana fumbled and UAB recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by UABSpecial teams +15% UAB UL: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 4:03 Louisiana was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +6% UAB UL: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:17 UAB was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% UL UAB: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UAB 42% · Louisiana 58%

Final margin
Louisiana by 7
Luck in points
5.6 for Louisiana
Luck-adjusted margin
Louisiana by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
UAB 26% · Louisiana 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · UAB · Louisiana

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