Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Western Michigan at Rice, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Western Michigan beat Rice 28–21, but the replays lean toward Rice: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 17 points of win probability to Western Michigan.
Western Michigan won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Rice it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 36%. The numbers
Before kickoff Western Michigan was a 71% favorite.
Final
 Western Michigan Broncos | 28 |
|---|---|
 Rice Owls | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +64 Western Michigan very lucky · −64 Rice
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Michigan wins 4, Rice wins 6.
- 1 WMU 30 RICE 9
- 2 WMU 23 RICE 13
- 3 WMU 10 RICE 6
- 4 WMU 24 RICE 22
- 5 WMU 14 RICE 17
- 6 WMU 14 RICE 20
- 7 WMU 7 RICE 16
- 8 WMU 3 RICE 16
- 9 WMU 7 RICE 24
- 10 WMU 17 RICE 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Western Michigan won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Rice it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 36%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for Western Michigan: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.04 | better by 0.11 |
| Western Michigan defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.03 | better by 0.04 |
| Rice offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.01 | worse by 0.02 |
| Rice defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.07 | worse by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Michigan wins 36% of them, Rice 64%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 6.2% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 9.4% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.3% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 23.6% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Rice by 17+ | 19.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Western Michigan 4 for 45 yards, Rice 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:57 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Western Michigan, 15 yards | +3% RICE +1.6 pts |
| Q1 10:00 | Roughing the Passer on Rice, 15 yards | +4% WMU +2.6 pts |
| Q1 7:36 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WMU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:18 | Roughing the Passer on Western Michigan, 15 yards | +6% RICE +3.6 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yards | +4% WMU +1.8 pts |
| Q2 1:42 | Holding on Rice, 10 yards | +1% WMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Illegal Snap on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RICE +0.2 pts |
| Q3 2:32 | Illegal Block on Western Michigan, 10 yards | +2% RICE +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Rice’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:00 | Roughing the Passer on Rice, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% WMU | WMU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 7:18 | Roughing the Passer on Western Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% RICE | RICE: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 1:55 | Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 8:27 | Rice was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +3% WMU | RICE: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 7:46 | E. Gota missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 2 of 6 from 45+ before | +7% WMU | RICE: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 6:14 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% WMU | WMU: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 0:54 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +5% WMU | WMU: End of half |
| 8 | Q4 6:31 | Rice was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +3% WMU | RICE: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Michigan 20% · Rice 80%
- Final margin
- Western Michigan by 7
- Luck in points
- 12.1 for Western Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rice by 5.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Michigan 36% · Rice 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Western Michigan · 
Rice
More from Week 3 2026
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic FAU 16–10 · replay 31% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- East Carolina at Old Dominion ECU 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Charlotte at App State APP 26–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner
- Tulane at Kansas State KSU 31–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Texas State TXST 49–35 · replay 92% for the winner
- Delaware State at South Florida USF 59–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Wyoming at Central Michigan CMU 24–10 · replay 96% for the winner