Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Temple at Toledo, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Toledo beat Temple 49–48, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Toledo wins 9 of 10. Temple had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Temple.
Before kickoff Toledo was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:34 left): Holding on Toledo, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to Temple.
Final (OT)
 Temple Owls | 48 |
|---|---|
 Toledo Rockets | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Toledo about even · −14 Temple
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Temple wins 1, Toledo wins 9.
- 1 TEM 38 TOL 31
- 2 TEM 21 TOL 24
- 3 TEM 28 TOL 34
- 4 TEM 21 TOL 30
- 5 TEM 27 TOL 41
- 6 TEM 24 TOL 41
- 7 TEM 21 TOL 42
- 8 TEM 6 TOL 31
- 9 TEM 31 TOL 59
- 10 TEM 10 TOL 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Temple wins 14% of them, Toledo 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Toledo by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Temple by 17+ | 1.8% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 7.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 17.9% |
| Toledo by 17+ | 46.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hardin, 41 yds made · 70% expected
- C. Hardin, 48 yds made · 57% expected
Penalties: Temple 4 for 35 yards, Toledo 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:49 | Disconcerting Signals on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEM +1.1 pts |
| Q2 5:17 | Pass Interference on Temple, 5 yards | +2% TOL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:02 | False Start on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TOL +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | +4% TEM +1.3 pts |
| Q3 4:34 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +15% TEM +4.2 pts |
| Q3 1:49 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEM +0.5 pts |
| Q4 11:34 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | +2% TEM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:33 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% TOL +6.6 pts |
| Q4 1:58 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | 0% TEM +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:12 | Pass Interference on Temple, 15 yards | 0% TOL +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Toledo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 13:12 | Toledo was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +9% TEM | TOL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 0:02 | Temple converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +9% TEM | TEM: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 8:30 | Temple converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% TEM | TEM: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 5:09 | C. Hardin made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 2 of 6 from 45+ before | +6% TEM | TEM: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 4:34 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +15% TEM | TEM: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 0:49 | Toledo was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +11% TEM | TOL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 14:55 | Temple fumbled and Toledo recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% TOL | TEM: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:29 | Toledo converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +11% TOL | TOL: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Temple 2% · Toledo 98%
- Final margin
- Toledo by 1
- Luck in points
- 11.6 for Temple
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Toledo by 12.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Temple 14% · Toledo 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Temple · 
Toledo
More from Week 3 2026
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic FAU 16–10 · replay 31% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- East Carolina at Old Dominion ECU 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Charlotte at App State APP 26–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Tulane at Kansas State KSU 31–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Texas State TXST 49–35 · replay 92% for the winner
- Delaware State at South Florida USF 59–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Wyoming at Central Michigan CMU 24–10 · replay 96% for the winner