Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Wyoming at Central Michigan, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Central Michigan beat Wyoming 24–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Central Michigan wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Wyoming: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Central Michigan it would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff Wyoming was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Wyoming Cowboys | 10 |
|---|---|
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Central Michigan about even · −4 Wyoming
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wyoming wins 0, Central Michigan wins 10.
- 1 WYO 21 CMU 24
- 2 WYO 17 CMU 24
- 3 WYO 7 CMU 17
- 4 WYO 7 CMU 21
- 5 WYO 7 CMU 24
- 6 WYO 10 CMU 30
- 7 WYO 7 CMU 30
- 8 WYO 3 CMU 28
- 9 WYO 10 CMU 41
- 10 WYO 7 CMU 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Wyoming
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Central Michigan it would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for Wyoming: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming offenseEPA per play gained | −0.21 | +0.01 | worse by 0.22 |
| Wyoming defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.25 | +0.05 | worse by 0.20 |
| Central Michigan offenseEPA per play gained | +0.25 | +0.06 | better by 0.18 |
| Central Michigan defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.21 | +0.06 | better by 0.27 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wyoming wins 4% of them, Central Michigan 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Central Michigan by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wyoming by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 3.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Central Michigan by 1–8 | 8.7% |
| Central Michigan by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Central Michigan by 17+ | 68.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. VanHuis, 35 yds made · 79% expected
- E. Sandvik, 37 yds made · 76% expected
Penalties: Wyoming 4 for 40 yards, Central Michigan 3 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:46 | Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% WYO +2.1 pts |
| Q3 9:19 | Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 15 yards | +2% WYO +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:13 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +1% CMU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:11 | Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 15 yards | +2% WYO +4.5 pts |
| Q4 3:11 | Illegal Block on Wyoming, 10 yards | 0% CMU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:04 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wyoming, 15 yards | 0% CMU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:24 | Offside on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CMU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Central Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:45 | Central Michigan converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +3% CMU | CMU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 9:41 | Central Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% WYO | CMU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 7:53 | Wyoming was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +3% CMU | WYO: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:46 | Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% WYO | WYO: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 6:48 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +4% WYO | WYO: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 0:51 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% CMU | CMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 0:02 | Central Michigan converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +3% CMU | CMU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 13:48 | Wyoming converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% WYO | WYO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wyoming 0% · Central Michigan 100%
- Final margin
- Central Michigan by 14
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for Wyoming
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Central Michigan by 19.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Wyoming 4% · Central Michigan 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Wyoming · 
Central Michigan
More from Week 3 2026
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Fresno State at San José State FRES 26–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Nevada at Middle Tennessee MTSU 27–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Arizona ARIZ 42–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- New Mexico at Oklahoma OU 14–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Stonehill at Massachusetts MASS 36–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin WIS 54–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Ball State at Liberty LIB 51–15 · replay 100% for the winner