Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Northern Illinois at Arizona, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Arizona beat Northern Illinois 42–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Arizona was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Northern Illinois Huskies | 17 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Wildcats | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Arizona about even · −14 Northern Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northern Illinois wins 1, Arizona wins 9.
- 1 NIU 21 ARIZ 14
- 2 NIU 21 ARIZ 24
- 3 NIU 7 ARIZ 13
- 4 NIU 10 ARIZ 19
- 5 NIU 24 ARIZ 37
- 6 NIU 7 ARIZ 22
- 7 NIU 3 ARIZ 21
- 8 NIU 3 ARIZ 24
- 9 NIU 3 ARIZ 28
- 10 NIU 0 ARIZ 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northern Illinois wins 14% of them, Arizona 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northern Illinois by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Northern Illinois by 9–16 | 3.6% |
| Northern Illinois by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Arizona by 1–8 | 23.8% |
| Arizona by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Arizona by 17+ | 42.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Schlenhardt, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- J. Schlenhardt, 41 yds missed · 71% expected
- J. Schlenhardt, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
Penalties: Northern Illinois 3 for 15 yards, Arizona 4 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:02 | Illegal Block on Arizona, 10 yards | 0% NIU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:20 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards | +1% NIU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:10 | Illegal Substitution on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARIZ +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:30 | False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARIZ +0.4 pts |
| Q3 1:40 | Ineligible Downfield on Northern Illinois, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% ARIZ +3.5 pts |
| Q4 3:33 | Unnecessary Roughness on Arizona, 15 yards | 0% NIU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:33 | Pass Interference on Arizona, 15 yards | 0% NIU +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Arizona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:38 | Arizona converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +2% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:01 | Arizona converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:09 | Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +3% NIU | NIU: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q1 1:12 | Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% ARIZ | NIU: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q1 1:08 | J. Schlenhardt missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him | +2% ARIZ | NIU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:45 | Arizona converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +1% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 13:06 | Arizona converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +1% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 9:38 | Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% NIU | NIU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northern Illinois 0% · Arizona 100%
- Final margin
- Arizona by 25
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for Arizona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona by 17.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Northern Illinois 14% · Arizona 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Northern Illinois · 
Arizona
More from Week 3 2026
- Arizona State vs Kansas ASU 24–17 · replay 8% for the winner
- Fresno State at San José State FRES 26–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- Houston at Texas Tech TTU 28–26 · replay 73% for the winner
- Georgia State at UCF UCF 44–30 · replay 78% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Baylor BAY 36–19 · replay 83% for the winner
- Nevada at Middle Tennessee MTSU 27–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Tulane at Kansas State KSU 31–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- West Virginia vs Virginia WVU 38–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- New Mexico at Oklahoma OU 14–6 · replay 96% for the winner