luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

New Mexico at Oklahoma, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Oklahoma beat New Mexico 14–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 92% favorite.

Final

New Mexico Lobos 6
Oklahoma Sooners 14

September 19, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Closing line: Oklahoma −21.5

Luck index +4 Oklahoma about even · −4 New Mexico

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. New Mexico wins 0, Oklahoma wins 10.

  1. 1 UNM 0 OU 3
  2. 2 UNM 3 OU 10
  3. 3 UNM 7 OU 17
  4. 4 UNM 0 OU 13
  5. 5 UNM 7 OU 21
  6. 6 UNM 0 OU 17
  7. 7 UNM 7 OU 26
  8. 8 UNM 7 OU 28
  9. 9 UNM 3 OU 29
  10. 10 UNM 0 OU 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

New Mexico wins 4% of them, Oklahoma 96%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
New Mexico by 17+0.1%
New Mexico by 9–160.8%
New Mexico by 1–83.1%
Level after regulation2.2%
Oklahoma by 1–815.1%
Oklahoma by 9–1624.1%
Oklahoma by 17+54.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to Oklahoma: the final margin was Oklahoma by 8, without the luck Oklahoma by 7.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Glasgow, 24 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Glasgow, 42 yds made · 70% expected
  • T. Sandell, 41 yds missed · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: New Mexico 8 for 55 yards, Oklahoma 6 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:14 Delay of Game on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OU +0.6 pts
Q1 7:51 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% OU +2.6 pts
Q1 5:14 False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNM +0.8 pts
Q1 1:55 False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNM +1.0 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OU +0.8 pts
Q2 1:02 Offside on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OU +1.1 pts
Q3 11:13 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% OU +1.1 pts
Q3 9:57 False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OU +0.1 pts
Q3 5:18 Offside on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNM +1.0 pts
Q3 3:42 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% OU +1.3 pts
Q4 13:13 False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNM +0.6 pts
Q4 12:05 Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards +1% UNM +1.0 pts
Q4 10:51 Delay of Game on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNM +0.2 pts
Q4 8:47 False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OU +0.7 pts

When it happened

Oklahoma’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oklahoma was ahead in it, below while New Mexico was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:51 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +2% OU OU: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:03 Oklahoma converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +3% OU OU: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:48 G. Glasgow made a 42-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him +4% OU UNM: Punt
4 Q3 12:22 New Mexico converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +3% UNM UNM: Punt
5 Q4 9:22 New Mexico converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +4% UNM UNM: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 6:45 New Mexico converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 11% expected +5% UNM UNM: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:40 New Mexico was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +2% OU UNM: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:57 New Mexico was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +4% OU –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

New Mexico 10% · Oklahoma 90%

Final margin
Oklahoma by 8
Luck in points
0.8 for Oklahoma
Luck-adjusted margin
Oklahoma by 7.2
Replay with same day's form
New Mexico 4% · Oklahoma 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · New Mexico · Oklahoma

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