luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Florida at Auburn, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Florida beat Auburn 44–39, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Florida was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:40 left): Face Mask on Florida, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to Auburn.

Final

Florida Gators 44
Auburn Tigers 39

September 19, 2026 · Jordan-Hare Stadium · Closing line: Florida −2.5

Luck index +27 Florida lucky · −27 Auburn

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Florida wins 7, Auburn wins 3.

  1. 1 FLA 35 AUB 3
  2. 2 FLA 35 AUB 10
  3. 3 FLA 34 AUB 14
  4. 4 FLA 24 AUB 9
  5. 5 FLA 38 AUB 27
  6. 6 FLA 35 AUB 28
  7. 7 FLA 27 AUB 24
  8. 8 FLA 31 AUB 34
  9. 9 FLA 21 AUB 27
  10. 10 FLA 28 AUB 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Florida wins 73% of them, Auburn 27%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Florida by 17+32.0%
Florida by 9–1619.5%
Florida by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation5.1%
Auburn by 1–814.5%
Auburn by 9–166.7%
Auburn by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to Auburn: the final margin was Florida by 5, without the luck Florida by 7.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. McPherson, 40 yds made · 74% expected
  • P. Durkin, 26 yds made · 91% expected
  • P. Durkin, 28 yds made · 89% expected
  • P. Durkin, 40 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Florida 13 for 103 yards, Auburn 6 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:31 Personal Foul on Auburn, 10 yards +1% FLA +0.7 pts
Q1 12:39 False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AUB +0.7 pts
Q1 12:13 Pass Interference on Auburn, 11 yards +4% FLA +2.2 pts
Q1 11:25 Holding on Florida, 10 yards +1% AUB +0.6 pts
Q1 11:19 Personal Foul on Florida, 10 yards +1% AUB +0.6 pts
Q1 2:41 Offside on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% FLA +0.8 pts
Q1 1:40 Face Mask on Florida, 15 yards, wiping out the play +10% AUB +4.8 pts
Q1 1:30 Face Mask on Auburn, 9 yards +2% FLA +1.3 pts
Q1 1:22 False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AUB +0.7 pts
Q1 0:25 Ineligible Downfield on Florida, 5 yards +1% AUB +1.3 pts
Q2 6:04 Unnecessary Roughness on Florida, 8 yards +3% AUB +1.2 pts
Q2 1:53 Pass Interference on Auburn, 15 yards +3% FLA +1.1 pts
Q2 0:11 Delay of Game on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% AUB +0.2 pts
Q3 12:53 Holding on Florida, 10 yards +1% AUB +0.6 pts
Q3 10:11 Holding on Florida, 10 yards +1% AUB +0.9 pts
Q3 9:44 Roughing the Passer on Auburn, 15 yards +3% FLA +1.6 pts
Q4 8:52 Delay of Game on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% AUB +0.9 pts
Q4 7:26 Holding on Florida, 10 yards 0% AUB +0.9 pts
Q4 1:55 Offside on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% AUB +0.4 pts

When it happened

Auburn’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Auburn was ahead in it, below while Florida was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:13 Pass Interference on Auburn, 11 yardsJudgment calls +4% FLA FLA: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:09 Florida converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% FLA FLA: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:40 Face Mask on Florida, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% AUB AUB: Touchdown
4 Q2 9:45 Florida converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% FLA FLA: Field goal
5 Q2 7:06 Auburn converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +3% AUB AUB: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:21 Auburn converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% AUB AUB: End of half
7 Q3 6:30 Florida converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% FLA FLA: End of half
8 Q4 0:24 Auburn converted 4th & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% AUB –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Florida 88% · Auburn 12%

Final margin
Florida by 5
Luck in points
2.3 for Auburn
Luck-adjusted margin
Florida by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Florida 73% · Auburn 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Florida · Auburn

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