Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Troy at Missouri, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Missouri beat Troy 27–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Missouri wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Missouri was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Troy Trojans | 17 |
|---|---|
 Missouri Tigers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Missouri about even · −10 Troy
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Troy wins 1, Missouri wins 9.
- 1 TROY 14 MIZ 7
- 2 TROY 24 MIZ 27
- 3 TROY 10 MIZ 16
- 4 TROY 7 MIZ 16
- 5 TROY 10 MIZ 23
- 6 TROY 10 MIZ 26
- 7 TROY 17 MIZ 36
- 8 TROY 3 MIZ 27
- 9 TROY 13 MIZ 41
- 10 TROY 7 MIZ 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Troy wins 10% of them, Missouri 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Troy by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 16.9% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 17.2% |
| Missouri by 17+ | 55.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Head, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- B. Craig, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- B. Craig, 36 yds made · 80% expected
- E. Head, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
Penalties: Troy 6 for 60 yards, Missouri 9 for 90 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:08 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +1% TROY +1.3 pts |
| Q1 12:25 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +0.7 pts |
| Q1 12:15 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:18 | Face Mask on Missouri, 15 yards | +6% TROY +4.2 pts |
| Q1 2:50 | Illegal Formation on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:46 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yards | +3% TROY +1.7 pts |
| Q3 13:21 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | 0% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:37 | Intentional Grounding on Missouri, 0 yards | +1% TROY +1.7 pts |
| Q3 7:09 | Holding on Troy, 10 yards | +1% MIZ +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:16 | Pass Interference on Troy, 10 yards | +1% MIZ +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:16 | Delay of Game on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:01 | Face Mask on Troy, 15 yards | 0% MIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Personal Foul on Missouri, 15 yards | +2% TROY +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:38 | Roughing the Passer on Troy, 15 yards | +1% MIZ +1.3 pts |
| Q4 4:53 | Face Mask on Missouri, 15 yards | +1% TROY +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Missouri’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:25 | Troy fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% TROY | TROY: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:18 | Face Mask on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% TROY | TROY: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 1:46 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TROY | TROY: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:19 | Missouri was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% TROY | MIZ: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:23 | Missouri was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% TROY | MIZ: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 9:39 | Return touchdown by MissouriSpecial teams | +7% MIZ | MIZ: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 4:22 | Troy converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% TROY | TROY: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 12:13 | Personal Foul on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% TROY | TROY: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Troy 3% · Missouri 97%
- Final margin
- Missouri by 10
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for Troy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri by 12.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Troy 10% · Missouri 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Troy · 
Missouri
More from Week 3 2026
- Marshall at Missouri State MRSH 30–24 · replay 22% for the winner
- SE Louisiana at UL Monroe SELA 38–35 · replay 28% for the winner
- James Madison at San Diego State JMU 26–13 · replay 40% for the winner
- East Carolina at Old Dominion ECU 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State JXST 31–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- LSU at Ole Miss MISS 32–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Delaware DEL 22–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Mississippi State at South Carolina MSST 41–34 · replay 73% for the winner
- Florida at Auburn FLA 44–39 · replay 73% for the winner
- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner