luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

James Madison at San Diego State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

James Madison beat San Diego State 26–13, but the replays lean toward San Diego State: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff San Diego State was a 58% favorite.

Final

James Madison Dukes 26
San Diego State Aztecs 13

September 19, 2026 · Snapdragon Stadium · Closing line: San Diego State −3

Luck index +60 James Madison very lucky · −60 San Diego State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. James Madison wins 4, San Diego State wins 6.

  1. 1 JMU 27 SDSU 0
  2. 2 JMU 45 SDSU 30
  3. 3 JMU 44 SDSU 36
  4. 4 JMU 34 SDSU 31
  5. 5 JMU 28 SDSU 31
  6. 6 JMU 23 SDSU 28
  7. 7 JMU 14 SDSU 23
  8. 8 JMU 13 SDSU 26
  9. 9 JMU 13 SDSU 31
  10. 10 JMU 7 SDSU 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

James Madison wins 40% of them, San Diego State 60%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
James Madison by 17+11.1%
James Madison by 9–1610.0%
James Madison by 1–816.6%
Level after regulation3.5%
San Diego State by 1–821.3%
San Diego State by 9–1616.0%
San Diego State by 17+21.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to San Diego State: the final margin was James Madison by 13, without the luck James Madison by 16.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Suarez, 46 yds made · 62% expected
  • M. Suarez, 32 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: James Madison 6 for 53 yards, San Diego State 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:56 False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDSU +0.7 pts
Q1 1:02 Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards +2% JMU +1.3 pts
Q1 0:48 Holding on James Madison, 10 yards +1% SDSU +0.6 pts
Q2 11:11 False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JMU +0.9 pts
Q2 7:17 Delay of Game on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JMU +1.1 pts
Q2 0:22 Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards +1% JMU +0.6 pts
Q3 12:01 Holding on James Madison, 10 yards +1% SDSU +0.6 pts
Q3 4:59 Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SDSU +1.1 pts
Q3 2:59 Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards +1% JMU +0.6 pts
Q4 10:34 Holding on James Madison, 10 yards +1% SDSU +3.7 pts
Q4 8:06 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on James Madison, 13 yards +1% SDSU +1.2 pts
Q4 1:50 Illegal Block on San Diego State, 10 yards +1% JMU +0.6 pts
Q4 1:35 False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JMU +0.4 pts

When it happened

San Diego State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while San Diego State was ahead in it, below while James Madison was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:54 James Madison converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% JMU JMU: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:47 San Diego State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% SDSU SDSU: Turnover
3 Q1 4:03 M. Suarez made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 4 of 7 from 45+ before +4% JMU JMU: Field goal
4 Q1 2:50 San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +3% JMU SDSU: Punt
5 Q2 13:10 San Diego State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% SDSU SDSU: Punt
6 Q2 5:34 James Madison fumbled and San Diego State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% SDSU JMU: Punt
7 Q2 3:10 San Diego State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +5% JMU SDSU: Turnover
8 Q4 6:05 San Diego State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% SDSU SDSU: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

James Madison 99% · San Diego State 1%

Final margin
James Madison by 13
Luck in points
3.3 for San Diego State
Luck-adjusted margin
James Madison by 16.3
Replay with same day's form
James Madison 40% · San Diego State 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · James Madison · San Diego State

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