Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Ohio at South Alabama, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
South Alabama beat Ohio 41–36, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff South Alabama was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Ohio Bobcats | 36 |
|---|---|
 South Alabama Jaguars | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 South Alabama lucky · −38 Ohio
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ohio wins 4, South Alabama wins 6.
- 1 OHIO 34 USA 10
- 2 OHIO 45 USA 31
- 3 OHIO 44 USA 37
- 4 OHIO 30 USA 28
- 5 OHIO 31 USA 34
- 6 OHIO 20 USA 26
- 7 OHIO 21 USA 30
- 8 OHIO 20 USA 33
- 9 OHIO 17 USA 35
- 10 OHIO 17 USA 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ohio wins 38% of them, South Alabama 62%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Alabama by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ohio by 17+ | 8.3% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 9.8% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 16.9% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 23.7% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| South Alabama by 17+ | 20.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Little, 32 yds made · 83% expected
- D. Little, 21 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Ohio 7 for 52 yards, South Alabama 9 for 76 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:09 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +2% OHIO +1.4 pts |
| Q1 9:44 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USA +0.3 pts |
| Q1 3:07 | Illegal Formation on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OHIO +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Personal Foul on Ohio, 10 yards | +2% USA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 13:37 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +1% OHIO +1.3 pts |
| Q2 3:53 | Offside on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Personal Foul on Ohio, 12 yards | +1% USA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:51 | Holding on South Alabama, 6 yards | +1% OHIO +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:39 | Illegal Formation on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +0.3 pts |
| Q3 12:32 | Personal Foul on South Alabama, 10 yards | +3% OHIO +1.3 pts |
| Q3 10:33 | Illegal Block on South Alabama, 10 yards | +2% OHIO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:56 | Personal Foul on South Alabama, 15 yards | +3% OHIO +1.6 pts |
| Q3 4:40 | Offside on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USA +1.4 pts |
| Q4 9:59 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OHIO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 6:59 | Delay of Game on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +1.3 pts |
| Q4 6:12 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | 0% USA +0.6 pts |
When it happened
South Alabama’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:05 | Ohio converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +3% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 2:23 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +3% OHIO | USA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:39 | South Alabama converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +4% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 8:49 | Ohio fumbled and South Alabama recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% USA | OHIO: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 12:32 | Personal Foul on South Alabama, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:59 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +4% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 7:56 | Personal Foul on South Alabama, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% OHIO | OHIO: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 5:51 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% USA | OHIO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ohio 27% · South Alabama 73%
- Final margin
- South Alabama by 5
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for South Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Alabama by 3.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Ohio 38% · South Alabama 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Ohio · 
South Alabama
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- Marshall at Missouri State MRSH 30–24 · replay 22% for the winner
- SE Louisiana at UL Monroe SELA 38–35 · replay 28% for the winner
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- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State JXST 31–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Delaware DEL 22–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- Georgia State at UCF UCF 44–30 · replay 78% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Charlotte at App State APP 26–21 · replay 83% for the winner