2025 college football season · final

College football’s luckiest and unluckiest teams of 2025

Tulane was the luckiest team of 2025: 11 wins from play that, replayed with the same day’s form, was worth 7.8. Arkansas was the unluckiest: 2 wins from play worth 5.9.

Luck here is wins minus replay wins. For each game: how often this team wins it when it’s replayed with the way both teams actually played (our postgame win expectancy), added up over the season, which college analysts call second-order wins. Regular season, FBS teams. How the replay works

Luck rankings By conference Week by week

#	Team	Conference	Record	Replay wins	Luck in wins	One-score	Coin-flip wins
1	Tulane	American	11–2	7.8	+3.2	5–0	9.2
2	BYU	Big 12	11–2	7.8	+3.2	3–0	9.5
3	Troy	Sun Belt	8–5	5.0	+3.0	3–0	7.0
4	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	10–3	7.3	+2.7	6–1	8.1
5	Ole Miss	SEC	11–1	8.4	+2.6	5–1	9.7
6	Navy	American	10–2	7.5	+2.5	5–0	7.3
7	Texas	SEC	9–3	6.6	+2.4	3–2	8.0
8	Duke	ACC	8–5	5.8	+2.2	3–2	7.1
9	California	ACC	7–5	4.8	+2.2	4–1	5.9
10	Indiana	Big Ten	13–0	10.8	+2.2	3–0	11.6
11	UNLV	Mountain West	10–3	7.8	+2.2	5–1	8.5
12	Oklahoma	SEC	10–2	7.9	+2.1	4–1	8.3
13	New Mexico	Mountain West	9–3	7.0	+2.0	4–1	7.4
14	Georgia	SEC	12–1	10.0	+2.0	4–1	10.9
15	Minnesota	Big Ten	7–5	5.0	+2.0	3–1	6.5
16	UConn	Independent	9–3	7.2	+1.8	4–3	7.7
17	Alabama	SEC	10–3	8.3	+1.7	4–1	8.9
18	Florida International	Conference USA	7–5	5.3	+1.7	2–1	7.0
19	Louisiana	Sun Belt	6–6	4.3	+1.7	4–2	4.1
20	Western Michigan	MAC	9–4	7.4	+1.6	3–1	7.8
21	Utah	Big 12	10–2	8.6	+1.4	1–1	9.9
22	Virginia	ACC	10–3	8.7	+1.3	4–3	9.6
23	Boise State	Mountain West	9–4	7.7	+1.3	1–0	8.3
24	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	6–6	4.7	+1.3	4–1	5.7
25	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	6–6	4.7	+1.3	1–1	4.9
26	Oregon	Big Ten	11–1	9.8	+1.2	2–0	10.6
27	Iowa State	Big 12	8–4	6.8	+1.2	5–3	7.7
28	LSU	SEC	7–5	5.9	+1.1	3–3	6.4
29	Northwestern	Big Ten	6–6	4.9	+1.1	3–3	4.8
30	James Madison	Sun Belt	12–1	11.0	+1.0	2–0	11.8
31	Houston	Big 12	9–3	8.0	+1.0	5–1	7.9
32	Ohio State	Big Ten	12–1	11.0	+1.0	1–1	12.0
33	Hawai'i	Mountain West	8–4	7.0	+1.0	1–2	7.2
34	NC State	ACC	7–5	6.0	+1.0	2–1	7.3
35	USC	Big Ten	9–3	8.0	+1.0	2–1	8.4
36	Fresno State	Mountain West	8–4	7.1	+0.9	2–0	7.9
37	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	7–5	6.1	+0.9	1–2	7.9
38	Army	American	6–6	5.1	+0.9	4–5	6.6
39	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	8–4	7.1	+0.9	3–2	5.6
40	Texas A&M	SEC	11–1	10.1	+0.9	4–0	9.7
41	Arizona State	Big 12	8–4	7.1	+0.9	5–2	6.4
42	Georgia Tech	ACC	9–3	8.2	+0.8	4–1	7.3
43	Kent State	MAC	5–7	4.2	+0.8	4–2	5.6
44	Michigan	Big Ten	9–3	8.2	+0.8	3–0	7.8
45	Vanderbilt	SEC	10–2	9.3	+0.7	3–1	9.7
46	North Texas	American	11–2	10.3	+0.7	2–0	10.9
47	TCU	Big 12	8–4	7.3	+0.7	3–2	6.8
48	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	8–5	7.3	+0.7	4–4	8.5
49	Rice	American	5–7	4.4	+0.6	3–2	4.8
50	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	7–5	6.4	+0.6	2–1	6.8
51	Ball State	MAC	4–8	3.4	+0.6	3–1	3.1
52	Delaware	Conference USA	6–6	5.5	+0.5	3–2	5.9
53	Ohio	MAC	8–4	7.5	+0.5	4–3	7.9
54	Texas Tech	Big 12	12–1	11.5	+0.5	0–1	12.7
55	Arizona	Big 12	9–3	8.6	+0.4	3–2	8.8
56	Pittsburgh	ACC	8–4	7.6	+0.4	1–2	7.9
57	Eastern Michigan	MAC	4–8	3.6	+0.4	3–3	4.1
58	Sam Houston	Conference USA	2–10	1.7	+0.3	2–1	1.8
59	Nebraska	Big Ten	7–5	6.7	+0.3	4–2	6.9
60	Memphis	American	8–4	7.7	+0.3	2–3	8.2
61	Mississippi State	SEC	5–7	4.8	+0.2	2–3	5.5
62	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	9–3	8.8	+0.2	1–0	8.4
63	Wake Forest	ACC	8–4	7.8	+0.2	4–1	6.8
64	Central Michigan	MAC	7–5	6.8	+0.2	1–2	7.4
65	Louisville	ACC	8–4	7.9	+0.1	2–3	8.1
66	Stanford	ACC	4–8	3.9	+0.1	2–2	3.2
67	App State	Sun Belt	5–7	4.9	+0.1	3–4	4.9
68	Syracuse	ACC	3–9	2.9	+0.1	1–0	2.8
69	Illinois	Big Ten	8–4	7.9	+0.1	2–0	8.0
70	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	6–6	5.9	+0.1	3–4	5.3
71	Michigan State	Big Ten	4–8	4.0	0.0	1–2	4.6
72	Wisconsin	Big Ten	4–8	4.0	0.0	1–0	3.4
73	Missouri State	Conference USA	7–5	7.0	0.0	5–2	4.8
74	SMU	ACC	8–4	8.1	−0.1	1–3	9.5
75	Rutgers	Big Ten	5–7	5.1	−0.1	2–2	4.7
76	UAB	American	4–8	4.1	−0.1	3–1	3.0
77	East Carolina	American	8–4	8.1	−0.1	1–2	7.9
78	Utah State	Mountain West	6–6	6.3	−0.3	1–2	6.7
79	Miami	ACC	10–2	10.3	−0.3	2–2	9.8
80	Notre Dame	Independent	10–2	10.3	−0.3	0–2	10.8
81	Kansas State	Big 12	6–6	6.3	−0.3	2–5	7.0
82	Washington State	Pac-12	6–6	6.4	−0.4	1–4	6.0
83	Akron	MAC	5–7	5.4	−0.4	3–2	5.5
84	Charlotte	American	1–11	1.4	−0.4	1–0	0.8
85	Maryland	Big Ten	4–8	4.5	−0.5	0–3	4.9
86	West Virginia	Big 12	4–8	4.5	−0.5	2–3	4.1
87	UCF	Big 12	5–7	5.5	−0.5	2–2	5.0
88	San Diego State	Mountain West	9–3	9.6	−0.6	1–1	8.8
89	Baylor	Big 12	5–7	5.6	−0.6	2–3	5.4
90	South Florida	American	9–3	9.6	−0.6	1–2	9.3
91	Missouri	SEC	8–4	8.7	−0.7	1–2	7.7
92	Temple	American	5–7	5.7	−0.7	2–2	5.3
93	New Mexico State	Conference USA	4–8	4.7	−0.7	2–4	3.7
94	Toledo	MAC	8–4	8.7	−0.7	0–3	8.8
95	Washington	Big Ten	8–4	8.7	−0.7	1–1	8.7
96	UCLA	Big Ten	3–9	3.7	−0.7	2–3	2.2
97	Iowa	Big Ten	8–4	8.8	−0.8	2–4	9.7
98	Kentucky	SEC	5–7	5.8	−0.8	2–2	5.0
99	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	3–9	3.8	−0.8	2–4	4.4
100	Clemson	ACC	7–5	7.8	−0.8	1–3	7.7
101	UTSA	American	6–6	6.9	−0.9	1–3	7.5
102	Northern Illinois	MAC	3–9	3.9	−0.9	1–3	3.7
103	Air Force	Mountain West	4–8	4.9	−0.9	1–3	5.4
104	Miami (OH)	MAC	7–6	7.9	−0.9	0–2	7.3
105	Bowling Green	MAC	4–8	5.0	−1.0	1–3	4.5
106	Colorado	Big 12	3–9	4.1	−1.1	1–3	4.8
107	Cincinnati	Big 12	7–5	8.1	−1.1	2–2	7.2
108	Tennessee	SEC	8–4	9.1	−1.1	2–2	9.0
109	South Carolina	SEC	4–8	5.2	−1.2	0–2	4.8
110	South Alabama	Sun Belt	4–8	5.2	−1.2	2–3	5.0
111	Florida Atlantic	American	4–8	5.2	−1.2	1–1	4.3
112	Buffalo	MAC	5–7	6.3	−1.3	3–4	5.3
113	Auburn	SEC	5–7	6.3	−1.3	0–6	7.4
114	Virginia Tech	ACC	3–9	4.3	−1.3	2–1	2.5
115	Florida	SEC	4–8	5.4	−1.4	2–2	4.2
116	North Carolina	ACC	4–8	5.4	−1.4	1–3	5.4
117	Tulsa	American	4–8	5.5	−1.5	2–3	4.8
118	Texas State	Sun Belt	6–6	7.5	−1.5	1–4	7.9
119	Colorado State	Mountain West	2–10	3.6	−1.6	1–2	2.5
120	Massachusetts	MAC	0–12	1.7	−1.7	0–2	0.7
121	Wyoming	Mountain West	4–8	5.7	−1.7	1–2	4.4
122	Penn State	Big Ten	6–6	7.8	−1.8	1–5	7.3
123	Nevada	Mountain West	3–9	4.9	−1.9	2–3	3.4
124	Liberty	Conference USA	4–8	5.9	−1.9	1–4	5.1
125	Marshall	Sun Belt	5–7	7.0	−2.0	1–4	6.4
126	Oklahoma State	Big 12	1–11	3.1	−2.1	0–4	2.0
127	Purdue	Big Ten	2–10	4.1	−2.1	0–3	2.6
128	Kansas	Big 12	5–7	7.1	−2.1	1–2	5.8
129	UTEP	Conference USA	2–10	4.1	−2.1	0–3	3.2
130	San José State	Mountain West	3–9	5.2	−2.2	3–4	3.7
131	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	3–9	5.2	−2.2	1–1	3.9
132	Georgia State	Sun Belt	1–11	3.6	−2.6	0–2	2.3
133	Florida State	ACC	5–7	7.6	−2.6	0–4	7.3
134	Boston College	ACC	2–10	4.7	−2.7	0–3	2.8
135	Oregon State	Pac-12	2–10	4.9	−2.9	1–3	3.3
136	Arkansas	SEC	2–10	5.9	−3.9	0–6	5.5

Replay wins: the sum, over every game, of how often the team wins a replay with the same day’s form. Coin-flip wins: the same with only kicks, fumble bounces, conversions and calls re-rolled; in the NFL it is the number that best predicts the rest of a season (college validation). One-score: games decided by 8 points or fewer. Games against FCS opponents count.

Did luck add wins or take them away?

Each logo is a team. Across: the wins its play was worth (replay wins). Up: the wins it actually got. On the diagonal the two match; above it, luck added wins; below it, luck cost wins.

Luck added wins Luck cost wins 02468101214 02468101214 Wins their play was worth (replay wins) Actual wins

Luck by conference, 2025

Each conference’s teams, luckiest first, with their national rank. The standings adjusted for luck: 2025 standings.

Big Ten ACC Big 12 SEC American Sun Belt MAC Conference USA Mountain West Independent Pac-12

Big Ten

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Indiana	13–0	10.8	+2.2	10
Minnesota	7–5	5.0	+2.0	15
Oregon	11–1	9.8	+1.2	26
Northwestern	6–6	4.9	+1.1	29
Ohio State	12–1	11.0	+1.0	32
USC	9–3	8.0	+1.0	35
Michigan	9–3	8.2	+0.8	44
Nebraska	7–5	6.7	+0.3	59
Illinois	8–4	7.9	+0.1	69
Michigan State	4–8	4.0	0.0	71
Wisconsin	4–8	4.0	0.0	72
Rutgers	5–7	5.1	−0.1	75
Maryland	4–8	4.5	−0.5	85
Washington	8–4	8.7	−0.7	95
UCLA	3–9	3.7	−0.7	96
Iowa	8–4	8.8	−0.8	97
Penn State	6–6	7.8	−1.8	122
Purdue	2–10	4.1	−2.1	127

ACC

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Duke	8–5	5.8	+2.2	8
California	7–5	4.8	+2.2	9
Virginia	10–3	8.7	+1.3	22
NC State	7–5	6.0	+1.0	34
Georgia Tech	9–3	8.2	+0.8	42
Pittsburgh	8–4	7.6	+0.4	56
Wake Forest	8–4	7.8	+0.2	63
Louisville	8–4	7.9	+0.1	65
Stanford	4–8	3.9	+0.1	66
Syracuse	3–9	2.9	+0.1	68
SMU	8–4	8.1	−0.1	74
Miami	10–2	10.3	−0.3	79
Clemson	7–5	7.8	−0.8	100
Virginia Tech	3–9	4.3	−1.3	114
North Carolina	4–8	5.4	−1.4	116
Florida State	5–7	7.6	−2.6	133
Boston College	2–10	4.7	−2.7	134

Big 12

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
BYU	11–2	7.8	+3.2	2
Utah	10–2	8.6	+1.4	21
Iowa State	8–4	6.8	+1.2	27
Houston	9–3	8.0	+1.0	31
Arizona State	8–4	7.1	+0.9	41
TCU	8–4	7.3	+0.7	47
Texas Tech	12–1	11.5	+0.5	54
Arizona	9–3	8.6	+0.4	55
Kansas State	6–6	6.3	−0.3	81
West Virginia	4–8	4.5	−0.5	86
UCF	5–7	5.5	−0.5	87
Baylor	5–7	5.6	−0.6	89
Colorado	3–9	4.1	−1.1	106
Cincinnati	7–5	8.1	−1.1	107
Oklahoma State	1–11	3.1	−2.1	126
Kansas	5–7	7.1	−2.1	128

SEC

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Ole Miss	11–1	8.4	+2.6	5
Texas	9–3	6.6	+2.4	7
Oklahoma	10–2	7.9	+2.1	12
Georgia	12–1	10.0	+2.0	14
Alabama	10–3	8.3	+1.7	17
LSU	7–5	5.9	+1.1	28
Texas A&M	11–1	10.1	+0.9	40
Vanderbilt	10–2	9.3	+0.7	45
Mississippi State	5–7	4.8	+0.2	61
Missouri	8–4	8.7	−0.7	91
Kentucky	5–7	5.8	−0.8	98
Tennessee	8–4	9.1	−1.1	108
South Carolina	4–8	5.2	−1.2	109
Auburn	5–7	6.3	−1.3	113
Florida	4–8	5.4	−1.4	115
Arkansas	2–10	5.9	−3.9	136

American

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Tulane	11–2	7.8	+3.2	1
Navy	10–2	7.5	+2.5	6
Army	6–6	5.1	+0.9	38
North Texas	11–2	10.3	+0.7	46
Rice	5–7	4.4	+0.6	49
Memphis	8–4	7.7	+0.3	60
UAB	4–8	4.1	−0.1	76
East Carolina	8–4	8.1	−0.1	77
Charlotte	1–11	1.4	−0.4	84
South Florida	9–3	9.6	−0.6	90
Temple	5–7	5.7	−0.7	92
UTSA	6–6	6.9	−0.9	101
Florida Atlantic	4–8	5.2	−1.2	111
Tulsa	4–8	5.5	−1.5	117

Sun Belt

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Troy	8–5	5.0	+3.0	3
Louisiana	6–6	4.3	+1.7	19
Georgia Southern	6–6	4.7	+1.3	24
Coastal Carolina	6–6	4.7	+1.3	25
James Madison	12–1	11.0	+1.0	30
Southern Miss	7–5	6.4	+0.6	50
Old Dominion	9–3	8.8	+0.2	62
App State	5–7	4.9	+0.1	67
Arkansas State	6–6	5.9	+0.1	70
South Alabama	4–8	5.2	−1.2	110
Texas State	6–6	7.5	−1.5	118
Marshall	5–7	7.0	−2.0	125
UL Monroe	3–9	5.2	−2.2	131
Georgia State	1–11	3.6	−2.6	132

MAC

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Western Michigan	9–4	7.4	+1.6	20
Kent State	5–7	4.2	+0.8	43
Ball State	4–8	3.4	+0.6	51
Ohio	8–4	7.5	+0.5	53
Eastern Michigan	4–8	3.6	+0.4	57
Central Michigan	7–5	6.8	+0.2	64
Akron	5–7	5.4	−0.4	83
Toledo	8–4	8.7	−0.7	94
Northern Illinois	3–9	3.9	−0.9	102
Miami (OH)	7–6	7.9	−0.9	104
Bowling Green	4–8	5.0	−1.0	105
Buffalo	5–7	6.3	−1.3	112
Massachusetts	0–12	1.7	−1.7	120

Conference USA

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Kennesaw State	10–3	7.3	+2.7	4
Florida International	7–5	5.3	+1.7	18
Louisiana Tech	7–5	6.1	+0.9	37
Western Kentucky	8–4	7.1	+0.9	39
Jacksonville State	8–5	7.3	+0.7	48
Delaware	6–6	5.5	+0.5	52
Sam Houston	2–10	1.7	+0.3	58
Missouri State	7–5	7.0	0.0	73
New Mexico State	4–8	4.7	−0.7	93
Middle Tennessee	3–9	3.8	−0.8	99
Liberty	4–8	5.9	−1.9	124
UTEP	2–10	4.1	−2.1	129

Mountain West

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
UNLV	10–3	7.8	+2.2	11
New Mexico	9–3	7.0	+2.0	13
Boise State	9–4	7.7	+1.3	23
Hawai'i	8–4	7.0	+1.0	33
Fresno State	8–4	7.1	+0.9	36
Utah State	6–6	6.3	−0.3	78
San Diego State	9–3	9.6	−0.6	88
Air Force	4–8	4.9	−0.9	103
Colorado State	2–10	3.6	−1.6	119
Wyoming	4–8	5.7	−1.7	121
Nevada	3–9	4.9	−1.9	123
San José State	3–9	5.2	−2.2	130

Independent

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
UConn	9–3	7.2	+1.8	16
Notre Dame	10–2	10.3	−0.3	80

Pac-12

Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Rank
Washington State	6–6	6.4	−0.4	82
Oregon State	2–10	4.9	−2.9	135

2025, week by week

Week	Dates	Winners behind in replays	Biggest heist
College Football Playoff	Dec 19, 2025–Jan 19, 2026	3 of 11	Alabama 34–24 Oklahoma · won 18% of replays
Bowl games	Dec 13, 2025–Jan 2, 2026	7 of 34	Hawai'i 35–31 California · won 9% of replays
Week 16	Dec 13, 2025	0 of 1	Navy 17–16 Army · won 64% of replays
Week 15	Dec 5, 2025–Dec 6, 2025	3 of 9	Duke 27–20 Virginia · won 14% of replays
Week 14	Nov 25, 2025–Nov 29, 2025	13 of 67	Louisiana 30–27 UL Monroe · won 13% of replays
Week 13	Nov 18, 2025–Nov 22, 2025	8 of 64	App State 26–24 Marshall · won 13% of replays
Week 12	Nov 11, 2025–Nov 15, 2025	5 of 59	Kansas State 14–6 Oklahoma State · won 7% of replays
Week 11	Nov 4, 2025–Nov 8, 2025	11 of 52	Sam Houston 21–17 Oregon State · won 2% of replays
Week 10	Oct 28, 2025–Nov 1, 2025	7 of 52	Oklahoma 33–27 Tennessee · won 17% of replays
Week 9	Oct 21, 2025–Oct 25, 2025	10 of 53	Virginia 17–16 North Carolina · won 15% of replays
Week 8	Oct 14, 2025–Oct 18, 2025	8 of 60	Texas 16–13 Kentucky · won 7% of replays
Week 7	Oct 8, 2025–Oct 11, 2025	8 of 56	Navy 32–31 Temple · won 15% of replays
Week 6	Oct 2, 2025–Oct 4, 2025	6 of 51	Virginia 30–27 Louisville · won 19% of replays
Week 5	Sep 25, 2025–Sep 27, 2025	8 of 53	Hawai'i 44–35 Air Force · won 5% of replays
Week 4	Sep 18, 2025–Sep 20, 2025	9 of 62	Fresno State 23–21 Hawai'i · won 24% of replays
Week 3	Sep 11, 2025–Sep 13, 2025	8 of 70	Georgia 44–41 Tennessee · won 20% of replays
Week 2	Sep 5, 2025–Sep 6, 2025	6 of 83	Michigan State 42–40 Boston College · won 8% of replays
Week 1	Aug 23, 2025–Sep 1, 2025	6 of 96	Tarleton State 30–27 Army · won 13% of replays

Game by game

The luck index of every game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). Teams sorted luckiest to unluckiest.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Bowl	CFP
TULN		85													82
BYU									74				64
TROY				70			69
KENN													77		61
MISS			63						62
NAVY							85					62
TEX	62							93	61					69
DUKE				65						78			87		86
CAL	61				72									82		91
IU
UNLV						75
OU									62	83		88					82
UNM														74
UGA			80											65
MINN							75							62
CONN				63									75
ALA							70		62			88					82
FIU			69					67
UL					71			66			86		84	87
WMU
UTAH														80
UVA						81		71	85		78				86	78
BOIS
GASO														69		60
CCU							69									61
ORE					61									67
ISU	69								74		78
LSU			70
NU							81
JMU
HOU					66
OSU	62																70
HAW				76	95											91
NCSU				65						65			82
USC												64				66
FRES				76									70
LT											75					61
ARMY	87	81								66				76
WKU						77		67
TA&M			63											69
ASU				61				62
GT			67		60					65				65
KENT									62
MICH				61
VAN
UNT															82
TCU							69				78					66
JXST															61
RICE						62					65
USM								66			62
BALL				63		62
DEL						77					75
OHIO						62
TTU								62
ARIZ
PITT					89											81
EMU											74
SHSU											98
NEB	81			61
MEM				70					72
MSST									61	77
ODU
WAKE					60						78
CMU
LOU					89	81		76				81
STAN											66
APP						80							87	68		60
SYR				66
ILL																64
ARST											62		84	68
MSU		92
WIS											77			62
MOST													77
SMU		73								68				82
RUTG
UAB											65			67
ECU																81
USU													70
MIA								76		68
ND			63
KSU	69	81					69					93
WSU	67							71		73
AKR									70
CLT
MD
WVU
UCF
SDSU														74
BAY		73		61
USF									72			62
MIZ							70	68								78
TEM							85
NMSU		76												68
TOL							79
WASH											77			67
UCLA
IOWA												64
UK								93
MTSU			79											68
CLEM			67	66						78		81
UTSA				60										76
NIU
AF					95			87		66	95
M-OH
BGSU			67				79		62		74
COLO
CIN	81				70								64
TENN			80							83						64
SC									62
USA		85							61
FAU			69			62							75
BUF				70					70
AUB								68	70
VT
FLA			70
UNC									85		66		87
TLSA		76												67
TXST							69				86
CSU				60
MASS		90
WYO						75		87
PSU					61		81
NEV			79
LIB			67
MRSH					71								87	69
OKST												93
PUR							75
KU					70									80
UTEP
SJSU											95
ULM							69							87
GAST									61
FSU													82
BC		92			72
ORST	61				66	80				73	98
ARK			63	70					70	77

Questions

Who is the luckiest college football team of 2025?

Tulane Green Wave: 11–2, from play worth 7.8 wins (+3.2 wins of luck). The unluckiest: Arkansas Razorbacks, 2–10 from play worth 5.9 wins.

What is postgame win expectancy?

How often a team would win a game it just played if the game were played again with the way both teams actually played. The idea comes from Bill Connelly’s SP+; ours replays each team’s own plays from that game 4,000 times, with kicks, fumble bounces and turnovers at the rates you would expect.

What is a luck rating in college football?

Wins minus the postgame win expectancy of every game added up (second-order wins). A team at +2 has won two more games than its play earned; one at −2 has lost two it should have won. Close-game records and turnover margins swing the same way, but the replay counts every game, not only the close ones.

Other seasons

2026