luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 16 2025 · December 13, 2025

Army vs Navy, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

Navy beat Army 17–16, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10. Army had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Army.

Before kickoff Navy was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:37 left): Navy converted 4th & 8, worth 17 points of win probability to Navy.

Final

Army Black Knights 16
Navy Midshipmen 17

December 13, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Navy −6.5

Luck index +36 Navy lucky · −36 Army

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Army wins 4, Navy wins 6.

  1. 1 ARMY 16 NAVY 0
  2. 2 ARMY 24 NAVY 14
  3. 3 ARMY 6 NAVY 0
  4. 4 ARMY 6 NAVY 3
  5. 5 ARMY 14 NAVY 16
  6. 6 ARMY 10 NAVY 14
  7. 7 ARMY 3 NAVY 10
  8. 8 ARMY 3 NAVY 14
  9. 9 ARMY 0 NAVY 16
  10. 10 ARMY 0 NAVY 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Army wins 36% of them, Navy 64%, counting the 10% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Army by 17+4.0%
Army by 9–1610.2%
Army by 1–819.8%
Level after regulation10.1%
Navy by 1–823.9%
Navy by 9–1618.4%
Navy by 17+13.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to Navy: the final margin was Navy by 1, without the luck Army by 4.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Jones, 20 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Jones, 45 yds made · 63% expected
  • D. Jones, 48 yds made · 58% expected
  • N. Kirkwood, 21 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Army 3 for 20 yards, Navy 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:29 Face Mask on Navy, 10 yards +3% ARMY +1.3 pts
Q3 13:37 False Start on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NAVY +0.7 pts
Q3 1:42 False Start on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NAVY +1.2 pts
Q4 10:11 False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARMY +0.5 pts
Q4 5:54 Holding on Army, 10 yards +5% NAVY +0.9 pts

When it happened

Navy’s chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Navy was ahead in it, below while Army was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:48 Army converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% ARMY ARMY: Field goal
2 Q2 6:23 Army converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% ARMY ARMY: Field goal
3 Q3 9:39 D. Jones made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +6% ARMY ARMY: Punt
4 Q4 14:09 Navy converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% NAVY NAVY: Punt
5 Q4 6:53 Navy fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NAVY NAVY: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:37 Navy was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedNavy converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +17% NAVY NAVY: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:15 Navy was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedNavy fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NAVY NAVY: End of game
8 Q4 1:54 Navy converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +6% NAVY NAVY: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Army 72% · Navy 28%

Final margin
Navy by 1
Luck in points
5.1 for Navy
Luck-adjusted margin
Army by 4.1
Replay with same day's form
Army 36% · Navy 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Army · Navy