2026 college football season · after Week 4
Turnover luck, 2026: who the fumbles bounced for
Delaware recovered 9 of the 10 fumbles in its games so far in 2026, 4.0 more than chance would give, worth +0.03 wins. Virginia Tech recovered 2 of 11, 3.7 fewer than expected (−0.10 wins).
Luck in wins counts each bounce by the moment it came. Regular season only. Methodology
Fumble luck
| # | Team | Fumbles in its games | Recovered | Above expected | In wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Delaware | 10 | 9 | +4.0 | +0.03 |
| 2 |  Western Michigan | 8 | 7 | +3.1 | +0.16 |
| 3 |  Washington | 5 | 5 | +2.5 | +0.06 |
| 4 |  Louisville | 9 | 7 | +2.4 | +0.07 |
| 5 |  Massachusetts | 9 | 7 | +2.3 | +0.12 |
| 6 |  Old Dominion | 16 | 10 | +2.1 | +0.10 |
| 7 |  Northwestern | 6 | 5 | +2.1 | +0.14 |
| 8 |  Troy | 8 | 6 | +2.0 | +0.06 |
| 9 |  Miami (OH) | 8 | 6 | +2.0 | −0.01 |
| 10 |  Georgia | 10 | 7 | +1.8 | +0.02 |
| 11 |  New Mexico | 8 | 6 | +1.8 | +0.03 |
| 12 |  Middle Tennessee | 8 | 6 | +1.8 | +0.08 |
| 13 |  Arizona State | 9 | 6 | +1.7 | +0.21 |
| 14 |  Duke | 5 | 4 | +1.5 | +0.06 |
| 15 |  Utah | 5 | 4 | +1.5 | +0.01 |
| 16 |  South Alabama | 7 | 5 | +1.4 | +0.12 |
| 17 |  Notre Dame | 9 | 6 | +1.4 | +0.02 |
| 18 |  Florida International | 7 | 5 | +1.4 | 0.00 |
| 19 |  Nebraska | 7 | 5 | +1.4 | +0.05 |
| 20 |  UAB | 7 | 5 | +1.4 | +0.16 |
| 21 |  New Mexico State | 8 | 5 | +1.2 | +0.13 |
| 22 |  Coastal Carolina | 12 | 7 | +1.2 | +0.06 |
| 23 |  TCU | 12 | 7 | +1.1 | +0.25 |
| 24 |  Virginia | 4 | 3 | +1.1 | +0.08 |
| 25 |  Florida Atlantic | 6 | 4 | +1.1 | +0.03 |
| 26 |  Texas | 8 | 5 | +0.9 | +0.06 |
| 27 |  Houston | 6 | 4 | +0.9 | +0.01 |
| 28 |  Southern Miss | 4 | 3 | +0.9 | −0.04 |
| 29 |  Maryland | 8 | 5 | +0.9 | +0.07 |
| 30 |  UCF | 10 | 6 | +0.9 | −0.06 |
| 31 |  Fresno State | 8 | 5 | +0.9 | +0.04 |
| 32 |  Syracuse | 4 | 3 | +0.9 | +0.04 |
| 33 |  Wisconsin | 8 | 5 | +0.8 | +0.02 |
| 34 |  North Texas | 8 | 5 | +0.8 | +0.06 |
| 35 |  Colorado State | 6 | 4 | +0.8 | −0.01 |
| 36 |  Wyoming | 9 | 5 | +0.7 | +0.07 |
| 37 |  Eastern Michigan | 9 | 5 | +0.7 | +0.09 |
| 38 |  Tulane | 7 | 4 | +0.7 | 0.00 |
| 39 |  South Carolina | 5 | 3 | +0.6 | 0.00 |
| 40 |  Marshall | 11 | 6 | +0.6 | +0.04 |
| 41 |  Wake Forest | 5 | 3 | +0.6 | −0.02 |
| 42 |  Colorado | 13 | 7 | +0.5 | +0.03 |
| 43 |  San Diego State | 5 | 3 | +0.5 | +0.06 |
| 44 |  Georgia Southern | 7 | 4 | +0.5 | +0.03 |
| 45 |  Arkansas State | 5 | 3 | +0.5 | +0.02 |
| 46 |  BYU | 1 | 1 | +0.5 | 0.00 |
| 47 |  Louisiana | 13 | 7 | +0.4 | −0.07 |
| 48 |  Texas A&M | 9 | 5 | +0.4 | −0.02 |
| 49 |  Penn State | 13 | 7 | +0.4 | −0.04 |
| 50 |  UCLA | 9 | 5 | +0.4 | +0.06 |
| 51 |  Oregon State | 5 | 3 | +0.4 | +0.01 |
| 52 |  Ohio State | 5 | 3 | +0.4 | −0.11 |
| 53 |  Florida | 7 | 4 | +0.3 | +0.01 |
| 54 |  Western Kentucky | 14 | 7 | +0.2 | +0.01 |
| 55 |  Ole Miss | 6 | 3 | +0.1 | −0.01 |
| 56 |  Ball State | 6 | 3 | +0.1 | +0.06 |
| 57 |  Michigan State | 8 | 4 | +0.1 | −0.01 |
| 58 |  Memphis | 2 | 1 | +0.1 | −0.02 |
| 59 |  Auburn | 4 | 2 | +0.1 | +0.03 |
| 60 |  Liberty | 10 | 5 | 0.0 | −0.03 |
| 61 |  Northern Illinois | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| 62 |  USC | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| 63 |  Iowa | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| 64 |  Kansas State | 12 | 6 | 0.0 | −0.03 |
| 65 |  Bowling Green | 10 | 5 | 0.0 | −0.02 |
| 66 |  Tulsa | 6 | 3 | −0.1 | +0.11 |
| 67 |  Baylor | 10 | 5 | −0.1 | −0.01 |
| 68 |  Florida State | 4 | 2 | −0.1 | +0.13 |
| 69 |  UTEP | 10 | 5 | −0.1 | +0.02 |
| 70 |  Alabama | 6 | 3 | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| 71 |  Kennesaw State | 10 | 5 | −0.1 | −0.04 |
| 72 |  James Madison | 6 | 3 | −0.1 | −0.10 |
| 73 |  Iowa State | 8 | 4 | −0.1 | −0.01 |
| 74 |  North Dakota State | 6 | 3 | −0.1 | −0.03 |
| 75 |  Toledo | 4 | 2 | −0.1 | +0.01 |
| 76 |  Miami | 6 | 3 | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| 77 |  Oklahoma State | 5 | 2 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| 78 |  UConn | 5 | 2 | −0.4 | −0.03 |
| 79 |  Utah State | 5 | 2 | −0.4 | −0.05 |
| 80 |  Mississippi State | 1 | 0 | −0.4 | −0.02 |
| 81 |  Arizona | 5 | 2 | −0.4 | +0.09 |
| 82 |  UL Monroe | 3 | 1 | −0.4 | +0.01 |
| 83 |  Texas Tech | 7 | 3 | −0.4 | +0.01 |
| 84 |  South Florida | 7 | 3 | −0.5 | −0.01 |
| 85 |  Temple | 7 | 3 | −0.5 | −0.03 |
| 86 |  Rutgers | 7 | 3 | −0.5 | −0.02 |
| 87 |  Boise State | 1 | 0 | −0.5 | −0.02 |
| 88 |  Oregon | 1 | 0 | −0.5 | −0.04 |
| 89 |  Army | 3 | 1 | −0.5 | −0.04 |
| 90 |  Ohio | 5 | 2 | −0.5 | +0.05 |
| 91 |  Louisiana Tech | 9 | 4 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| 92 |  North Carolina | 7 | 3 | −0.5 | −0.15 |
| 93 |  Air Force | 1 | 0 | −0.5 | −0.39 |
| 94 |  Minnesota | 5 | 2 | −0.5 | −0.02 |
| 95 |  UNLV | 7 | 3 | −0.5 | −0.10 |
| 96 |  Stanford | 5 | 2 | −0.6 | +0.05 |
| 97 |  LSU | 5 | 2 | −0.6 | −0.04 |
| 98 |  Missouri State | 11 | 5 | −0.6 | −0.03 |
| 99 |  Texas State | 8 | 3 | −0.9 | +0.10 |
| 100 |  Tennessee | 10 | 4 | −0.9 | +0.06 |
| 101 |  Charlotte | 6 | 2 | −0.9 | +0.03 |
| 102 |  Navy | 6 | 2 | −0.9 | −0.12 |
| 103 |  Clemson | 6 | 2 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| 104 |  San José State | 2 | 0 | −0.9 | −0.12 |
| 105 |  NC State | 8 | 3 | −0.9 | +0.01 |
| 106 |  Pittsburgh | 4 | 1 | −0.9 | −0.02 |
| 107 |  Michigan | 8 | 3 | −1.0 | −0.03 |
| 108 |  Nevada | 10 | 4 | −1.0 | +0.30 |
| 109 |  Boston College | 8 | 3 | −1.0 | −0.02 |
| 110 |  Kansas | 12 | 5 | −1.0 | −0.17 |
| 111 |  Arkansas | 8 | 3 | −1.0 | +0.01 |
| 112 |  Sacramento State | 8 | 3 | −1.0 | −0.03 |
| 113 |  SMU | 8 | 3 | −1.1 | −0.12 |
| 114 |  Sam Houston | 6 | 2 | −1.1 | −0.05 |
| 115 |  Vanderbilt | 10 | 4 | −1.2 | −0.06 |
| 116 |  App State | 6 | 2 | −1.2 | +0.07 |
| 117 |  Cincinnati | 12 | 5 | −1.2 | +0.07 |
| 118 |  West Virginia | 10 | 4 | −1.3 | −0.09 |
| 119 |  California | 5 | 1 | −1.5 | −0.09 |
| 120 |  Kentucky | 7 | 2 | −1.5 | −0.03 |
| 121 |  Georgia State | 5 | 1 | −1.5 | −0.01 |
| 122 |  Akron | 7 | 2 | −1.6 | −0.01 |
| 123 |  UTSA | 5 | 1 | −1.6 | −0.08 |
| 124 |  Kent State | 9 | 3 | −1.6 | −0.03 |
| 125 |  Illinois | 3 | 0 | −1.6 | −0.06 |
| 126 |  Missouri | 11 | 4 | −1.7 | −0.03 |
| 127 |  East Carolina | 14 | 5 | −1.8 | −0.23 |
| 128 |  Oklahoma | 10 | 3 | −1.8 | −0.13 |
| 129 |  Purdue | 8 | 2 | −1.9 | −0.09 |
| 130 |  Jacksonville State | 10 | 3 | −2.0 | −0.17 |
| 131 |  Georgia Tech | 10 | 3 | −2.1 | −0.10 |
| 132 |  Hawai'i | 13 | 4 | −2.5 | −0.27 |
| 133 |  Indiana | 9 | 2 | −2.6 | −0.04 |
| 134 |  Buffalo | 12 | 3 | −2.7 | −0.11 |
| 135 |  Central Michigan | 10 | 2 | −3.0 | −0.12 |
| 136 |  Rice | 12 | 3 | −3.1 | −0.05 |
| 137 |  Washington State | 7 | 0 | −3.5 | −0.10 |
| 138 |  Virginia Tech | 11 | 2 | −3.7 | −0.10 |
Kicking luck
Field goals made against what each kick’s distance and kicker give, for the team and against it. Net: its own kicks above expected minus its opponents’.
| Team | Field goals | Opponents | Net | In wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | 10/10 | 3/6 | +3.2 | +0.18 |
| Clemson | 10/11 | 4/8 | +3.2 | +0.01 |
| Michigan State | 8/9 | 3/5 | +3.0 | +0.08 |
| Tulane | 4/6 | 3/7 | +2.9 | +0.42 |
| North Dakota State | 7/8 | 1/3 | +2.9 | +0.02 |
| Texas | 7/7 | 6/9 | +2.8 | +0.10 |
| Cincinnati | 3/4 | 4/7 | +2.5 | +0.13 |
| Pittsburgh | 5/5 | 2/4 | +2.3 | +0.05 |
| Texas A&M | 6/6 | 3/5 | +2.3 | +0.03 |
| Minnesota | 7/7 | 2/3 | +2.1 | +0.09 |
| Bowling Green | 4/4 | 4/7 | +1.9 | −0.01 |
| Western Michigan | 4/5 | 1/3 | +1.9 | +0.10 |
| Arizona | 3/5 | 2/6 | +1.9 | −0.06 |
| Alabama | 8/8 | 3/4 | +1.9 | +0.03 |
| Louisiana | 4/4 | 0/1 | +1.8 | +0.02 |
| Marshall | 6/8 | 4/8 | +1.8 | +0.50 |
| California | 4/7 | 4/9 | +1.8 | +0.21 |
| TCU | 4/5 | 2/4 | +1.7 | +0.07 |
| Wake Forest | 9/10 | 7/11 | +1.6 | +0.36 |
| Georgia State | 7/7 | 5/6 | +1.4 | +0.10 |
| Fresno State | 7/8 | 3/4 | +1.4 | +0.06 |
| Texas Tech | 4/4 | 4/7 | +1.4 | +0.18 |
| App State | 7/8 | 4/5 | +1.3 | +0.09 |
| West Virginia | 4/4 | 5/7 | +1.3 | +0.14 |
| Houston | 4/4 | 0/1 | +1.3 | 0.00 |
| Iowa State | 6/7 | 5/7 | +1.3 | −0.08 |
| South Alabama | 6/8 | 1/4 | +1.3 | −0.01 |
| Florida | 6/6 | 4/5 | +1.2 | +0.03 |
| Wyoming | 5/5 | 4/6 | +1.2 | +0.03 |
| UConn | 2/3 | 4/7 | +1.2 | +0.16 |
| Wisconsin | 8/8 | 8/9 | +1.2 | +0.04 |
| Baylor | 8/10 | 4/6 | +1.1 | +0.05 |
| Memphis | 5/5 | 2/3 | +1.0 | −0.11 |
| Northwestern | 5/5 | 6/7 | +1.0 | +0.02 |
| Illinois | 6/7 | 5/5 | +1.0 | +0.01 |
| Florida Atlantic | 5/7 | 3/6 | +0.9 | +0.05 |
| Georgia | 3/3 | 2/3 | +0.9 | +0.01 |
| Sacramento State | 6/8 | 3/6 | +0.8 | +0.01 |
| New Mexico | 5/8 | 1/3 | +0.8 | 0.00 |
| Penn State | 7/8 | 4/6 | +0.8 | −0.01 |
| Ole Miss | 7/9 | 8/9 | +0.8 | +0.08 |
| Massachusetts | 7/9 | 3/4 | +0.7 | +0.14 |
| Delaware | 3/5 | 0/2 | +0.7 | 0.00 |
| Florida State | 5/5 | 6/7 | +0.7 | +0.06 |
| Hawai'i | 6/8 | 2/3 | +0.6 | −0.14 |
| Western Kentucky | 1/1 | 1/2 | +0.6 | 0.00 |
| Coastal Carolina | 3/3 | 3/3 | +0.6 | 0.00 |
| James Madison | 9/9 | 5/5 | +0.6 | +0.14 |
| Liberty | 6/6 | 6/7 | +0.6 | −0.07 |
| UAB | 8/9 | 4/4 | +0.5 | −0.07 |
| Arkansas | 7/8 | 1/1 | +0.5 | −0.06 |
| Virginia Tech | 6/6 | 3/4 | +0.5 | +0.03 |
| Arizona State | 3/3 | 3/4 | +0.5 | +0.04 |
| Old Dominion | 6/6 | 10/10 | +0.5 | −0.04 |
| Oregon | 5/5 | 8/9 | +0.4 | −0.01 |
| Duke | 4/5 | 3/6 | +0.3 | +0.01 |
| NC State | 4/4 | 3/4 | +0.3 | +0.07 |
| Auburn | 4/6 | 7/9 | +0.3 | +0.01 |
| Army | 2/3 | 2/3 | +0.3 | +0.07 |
| Middle Tennessee | 5/6 | 5/5 | +0.3 | +0.04 |
| Colorado | 3/5 | 7/10 | +0.2 | −0.14 |
| Kansas | 2/4 | 4/6 | +0.1 | +0.18 |
| Utah | 4/5 | 2/3 | +0.1 | +0.06 |
| South Florida | 5/6 | 5/6 | 0.0 | +0.04 |
| Purdue | 8/9 | 6/7 | 0.0 | −0.10 |
| Arkansas State | 3/5 | 1/2 | 0.0 | +0.03 |
| Temple | 5/8 | 2/3 | −0.1 | −0.02 |
| Michigan | 4/4 | 6/7 | −0.1 | +0.05 |
| Missouri State | 2/4 | 5/8 | −0.1 | −0.04 |
| Oklahoma | 4/6 | 5/8 | −0.1 | +0.04 |
| UCF | 4/4 | 6/7 | −0.1 | +0.04 |
| Vanderbilt | 5/6 | 4/5 | −0.2 | +0.03 |
| Washington | 7/9 | 6/8 | −0.2 | −0.07 |
| San Diego State | 3/3 | 6/7 | −0.2 | −0.10 |
| Colorado State | 4/5 | 6/7 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Kansas State | 5/5 | 4/5 | −0.3 | −0.02 |
| San José State | 7/9 | 4/5 | −0.3 | +0.05 |
| Indiana | 4/5 | 4/5 | −0.3 | +0.01 |
| UNLV | 3/4 | 8/10 | −0.3 | +0.09 |
| Kentucky | 4/6 | 3/4 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Boise State | 5/6 | 5/6 | −0.3 | +0.14 |
| Akron | 3/4 | 7/8 | −0.3 | −0.03 |
| Tennessee | 4/4 | 7/7 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| BYU | 2/3 | 1/1 | −0.4 | −0.01 |
| Navy | 2/3 | 3/5 | −0.4 | +0.08 |
| Miami | 3/4 | 3/3 | −0.5 | +0.02 |
| Nevada | 6/6 | 7/7 | −0.5 | −0.21 |
| Ohio | 4/7 | 4/5 | −0.5 | −0.45 |
| Kennesaw State | 4/5 | 6/8 | −0.5 | −0.06 |
| Missouri | 5/8 | 2/4 | −0.5 | −0.30 |
| South Carolina | 6/8 | 3/3 | −0.5 | +0.01 |
| Iowa | 5/7 | 4/4 | −0.5 | −0.03 |
| Virginia | 3/5 | 3/4 | −0.5 | −0.18 |
| Notre Dame | 5/6 | 4/4 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| North Texas | 6/9 | 3/4 | −0.6 | +0.05 |
| Nebraska | 3/5 | 4/6 | −0.6 | +0.01 |
| Kent State | 2/3 | 3/3 | −0.7 | −0.08 |
| UCLA | 4/5 | 4/4 | −0.7 | +0.01 |
| Maryland | 4/5 | 2/2 | −0.7 | +0.02 |
| USC | 4/5 | 4/4 | −0.8 | −0.09 |
| Rutgers | 3/3 | 7/7 | −0.8 | −0.13 |
| Georgia Tech | 6/8 | 6/7 | −0.8 | +0.13 |
| Oregon State | 4/6 | 3/3 | −0.9 | −0.17 |
| Louisville | 6/8 | 8/9 | −0.9 | −0.37 |
| Air Force | 5/6 | 5/5 | −1.0 | +0.15 |
| UTSA | 5/7 | 9/11 | −1.1 | +0.15 |
| LSU | 5/7 | 4/6 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Stanford | 4/5 | 3/3 | −1.1 | −0.07 |
| Troy | 5/9 | 3/4 | −1.1 | −0.01 |
| Sam Houston | 2/4 | 2/2 | −1.1 | +0.02 |
| Syracuse | 5/8 | 3/5 | −1.2 | −0.27 |
| Buffalo | 5/7 | 5/5 | −1.2 | −0.01 |
| Ball State | 3/4 | 3/3 | −1.2 | +0.01 |
| Jacksonville State | 6/8 | 8/10 | −1.3 | +0.35 |
| New Mexico State | 3/6 | 5/7 | −1.3 | −0.09 |
| Mississippi State | 6/7 | 9/11 | −1.3 | +0.05 |
| Tulsa | 2/4 | 6/7 | −1.4 | −0.13 |
| Ohio State | 4/5 | 5/5 | −1.4 | −0.09 |
| Florida International | 6/8 | 10/12 | −1.5 | −0.11 |
| Northern Illinois | 2/5 | 2/3 | −1.5 | −0.07 |
| Boston College | 4/5 | 5/5 | −1.6 | −0.11 |
| East Carolina | 4/5 | 6/6 | −1.6 | −0.10 |
| Louisiana Tech | 1/3 | 6/6 | −1.6 | −0.01 |
| UL Monroe | 5/7 | 8/8 | −1.7 | −0.06 |
| Central Michigan | 2/3 | 6/7 | −1.7 | −0.10 |
| North Carolina | 4/7 | 5/6 | −1.8 | −0.10 |
| Miami (OH) | 3/7 | 1/3 | −1.9 | −0.19 |
| Rice | 2/5 | 3/3 | −2.0 | −0.14 |
| UTEP | 2/5 | 7/8 | −2.3 | −0.01 |
| Utah State | 1/3 | 11/14 | −2.3 | −0.06 |
| Washington State | 2/7 | 5/8 | −2.4 | +0.01 |
| Charlotte | 3/4 | 6/6 | −2.4 | −0.01 |
| SMU | 3/7 | 3/4 | −2.5 | −0.09 |
| Toledo | 2/4 | 9/10 | −2.6 | −0.08 |
| Eastern Michigan | 4/7 | 6/6 | −2.9 | −0.10 |
| Georgia Southern | 3/6 | 6/6 | −3.1 | 0.00 |
| Southern Miss | 2/5 | 6/6 | −3.3 | −0.35 |
| Texas State | 2/6 | 3/3 | −3.3 | −0.16 |
Questions
Which college football team has the most fumble luck in 2026?
Delaware Blue Hens so far: 9 of the 10 fumbles in its games recovered (90%), 4.0 more than expected, worth +0.03 wins.
Is fumble luck real?
Yes. Who falls on a loose ball is close to a coin flip: in FBS games in 2026 so far, the team that fumbled kept the ball 48% of the time, and a team that beats the expected rate one season usually doesn’t the next. A team’s turnover margin built on recoveries tends to fall back; one built on forcing fumbles and avoiding interceptions lasts longer.
How is fumble luck measured?
Every fumble gets the chance the fumbling team keeps it, from where and how it happened. A recovery counts as luck by how far it beat that chance, and in wins by how much the bounce moved the chance of winning at that moment: a fumble recovered late in a tied game is worth most of a win, one in a blowout next to nothing.
2026 luck rankings · Expected wins · One-score games · Power rankings