Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress

Georgia Southern Eagles: luck and expected wins

Georgia Southern is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.7 wins. Luck cost 0.7: the 22nd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Georgia Southern wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Charleston Southern	W 31–0	100%	0
Week 2	@ Clemson	L 7–22	36%	−36
Week 3	@ Jacksonville State	L 27–31	33%	−33
Week 4	vs Houston	L 28–42	2%	−2

Wk 1 0 vs CHSO

Wk 2 −36 @ CLEM

Wk 3 −33 @ JXST

Wk 4 −2 vs HOU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Georgia Southern win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern by 0.3	51%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs James Madison	James Madison by 15.6	17%
Week 7 · Oct 15	at Old Dominion	Old Dominion by 3.9	41%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs App State	Georgia Southern by 0.9	52%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Marshall	Georgia Southern by 7.0	66%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Georgia State	Georgia State by 5.7	37%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Troy	Troy by 3.1	43%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Louisiana Tech	Georgia Southern by 1.2	53%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Georgia Southern’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.10	−3.8
Fumble bounces	+0.03	+1.7

Luckiest wins

Wins Georgia Southern takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	@ Marshall	W 24–19	31%	+69
2025 JLab Birmingham Bowl	vs App State	W 29–10	40%	+60
2025 Week 3	vs Jacksonville State	W 41–34	56%	+44
2025 Week 8	vs Georgia State	W 41–24	63%	+37
2025 Week 11	@ App State	W 25–23	82%	+18

Unluckiest losses

Losses Georgia Southern would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 7	vs Southern Miss	L 35–38	46%	−46
2026 Week 2	@ Clemson	L 7–22	36%	−36
2026 Week 3	@ Jacksonville State	L 27–31	33%	−33
2025 Week 9	@ Arkansas State	L 24–34	14%	−14
2026 Week 4	vs Houston	L 28–42	2%	−2

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	6–6	4.7	+1.3	4–1	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Fresno State	L 14–42	0%	0
Week 2	@ USC	L 20–59	0%	0
Week 3	vs Jacksonville State	W 41–34	56%	+44
Week 4	vs Maine	W 45–17	98%	+2
Week 5	@ James Madison	L 10–35	0%	0
Week 7	vs Southern Miss	L 35–38	46%	−46
Week 8	vs Georgia State	W 41–24	63%	+37
Week 9	@ Arkansas State	L 24–34	14%	−14
Week 11	@ App State	W 25–23	82%	+18
Week 12	vs Coastal Carolina	W 45–40	82%	+18
Week 13	vs Old Dominion	L 10–45	1%	−1
Week 14	@ Marshall	W 24–19	31%	+69
JLab Birmingham Bowl	vs App State	W 29–10	40%	+60