luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 9, 2025

Southern Miss at Georgia Southern, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Southern Miss beat Georgia Southern 38–35, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Southern Miss wins 5 of 10.

Before kickoff Southern Miss was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:17 left): Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 11 yards, worth 8 points of win probability to Georgia Southern.

Final

Southern Miss Golden Eagles 38
Georgia Southern Eagles 35

October 9, 2025 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · Closing line: Southern Miss −3

Luck index +46 Southern Miss lucky · −46 Georgia Southern

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Southern Miss wins 5, Georgia Southern wins 5.

  1. 1 USM 45 GASO 17
  2. 2 USM 28 GASO 9
  3. 3 USM 28 GASO 16
  4. 4 USM 31 GASO 24
  5. 5 USM 10 GASO 7
  6. 6 USM 42 GASO 45
  7. 7 USM 27 GASO 34
  8. 8 USM 10 GASO 21
  9. 9 USM 17 GASO 34
  10. 10 USM 24 GASO 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Southern Miss wins 54% of them, Georgia Southern 46%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Southern Miss by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Southern Miss by 17+18.8%
Southern Miss by 9–1616.8%
Southern Miss by 1–818.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Georgia Southern by 1–819.7%
Georgia Southern by 9–1611.7%
Georgia Southern by 17+12.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to Southern Miss: the final margin was Southern Miss by 3, without the luck Southern Miss by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Southern Miss 6 for 57 yards, Georgia Southern 13 for 104 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:38 Roughing the Passer on Southern Miss, 2 yards +2% GASO +0.8 pts
Q1 8:14 Holding on Southern Miss, 24 yards +3% GASO +1.5 pts
Q1 5:54 Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yards +6% USM +3.0 pts
Q1 2:46 Penalty on Georgia Southern, 0 yards 0% USM 0.0 pts
Q1 2:46 Penalty on Georgia Southern, 2 yards 0% USM +0.1 pts
Q1 0:20 Holding on Georgia Southern, 7 yards +1% USM +0.6 pts
Q1 0:00 Penalty on Georgia Southern, 2 yards +3% USM +1.5 pts
Q2 13:24 Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards +2% GASO +1.1 pts
Q2 13:24 False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GASO +0.5 pts
Q2 12:39 False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GASO +0.6 pts
Q2 5:18 Offside on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% USM +2.1 pts
Q2 5:06 False Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USM +0.5 pts
Q2 1:21 Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 13 yards +2% USM +2.4 pts
Q3 11:22 False Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USM +0.7 pts
Q3 6:23 Penalty on Georgia Southern, 15 yards +2% USM +1.6 pts
Q3 4:24 Personal Foul on Georgia Southern, 15 yards +2% USM +3.1 pts
Q4 4:17 Delay of Game on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USM +0.5 pts
Q4 2:17 Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 11 yards +8% GASO +2.9 pts
Q4 2:13 Penalty on Georgia Southern, 15 yards +1% USM +0.9 pts

When it happened

Georgia Southern’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Georgia Southern was ahead in it, below while Southern Miss was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:14 Holding on Southern Miss, 24 yardsJudgment calls +3% GASO GASO: Punt
2 Q1 7:15 Southern Miss converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +3% USM USM: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:54 Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% USM USM: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:00 Southern Miss converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% USM USM: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:00 Penalty on Georgia Southern, 2 yardsJudgment calls +3% USM USM: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:18 Offside on Georgia Southern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% USM USM: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:53 Georgia Southern converted 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +4% GASO GASO: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:17 Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 11 yardsJudgment calls +8% GASO GASO: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Southern Miss 59% · Georgia Southern 41%

Final margin
Southern Miss by 3
Luck in points
1.6 for Southern Miss
Luck-adjusted margin
Southern Miss by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Southern Miss 54% · Georgia Southern 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Southern Miss · Georgia Southern

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