Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Northwestern at Penn State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Northwestern beat Penn State 22–21, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Penn State wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Northwestern.
Before kickoff Penn State was a 91% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:00 left): Penn State was stopped on 4th & 3, worth 23 points of win probability to Northwestern.
Final
 Northwestern Wildcats | 22 |
|---|---|
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +81 Northwestern very lucky · −81 Penn State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northwestern wins 2, Penn State wins 8.
- 1 NU 21 PSU 10
- 2 NU 24 PSU 21
- 3 NU 19 PSU 21
- 4 NU 20 PSU 24
- 5 NU 13 PSU 21
- 6 NU 17 PSU 28
- 7 NU 7 PSU 22
- 8 NU 17 PSU 36
- 9 NU 17 PSU 42
- 10 NU 7 PSU 39
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northwestern wins 19% of them, Penn State 81%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Northwestern by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northwestern by 17+ | 2.1% |
| Northwestern by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| Northwestern by 1–8 | 11.4% |
| Level after regulation | 3.4% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 23.3% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 21.4% |
| Penn State by 17+ | 33.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Olsen, 27 yds made · 88% expected
- J. Olsen, 34 yds made · 81% expected
- J. Olsen, 41 yds made · 70% expected
Penalties: Northwestern 2 for 10 yards, Penn State 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offside on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 10:14 | Face Mask on Penn State, 9 yards | +1% NU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 2:51 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Penn State, 1 yard | 0% NU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 9:47 | Personal Foul on Penn State, 15 yards | +2% NU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:15 | Face Mask on Penn State, 15 yards | +2% NU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:15 | Roughing the Passer on Penn State, 15 yards | +2% NU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Formation on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PSU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:19 | Delay of Game on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Penn State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 5:39 | Penn State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedNorthwestern fumbled and Penn State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 1:15 | Northwestern was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedFace Mask on Penn State, 15 yardsJudgment callsRoughing the Passer on Penn State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% NU | NU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 14:08 | J. Olsen made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him | +7% NU | NU: End of game |
| 4 | Q4 14:04 | Penn State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +7% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 10:45 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +7% NU | NU: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 4:51 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedNorthwestern’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +9% PSU | PSU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 3:00 | Penn State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +23% NU | – |
| 8 | Q4 2:00 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +5% NU | NU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northwestern 59% · Penn State 41%
- Final margin
- Northwestern by 1
- Luck in points
- 0.1 for Penn State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Northwestern by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Northwestern 19% · Penn State 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Northwestern · 
Penn State
More from Week 7 2025
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Indiana at Oregon IU 30–20 · replay 55% for the winner
- Ohio State at Illinois OSU 34–16 · replay 61% for the winner
- Rutgers at Washington WASH 38–19 · replay 83% for the winner
- Michigan at USC USC 31–13 · replay 85% for the winner
- UCLA at Michigan State UCLA 38–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Nebraska at Maryland NEB 34–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Iowa at Wisconsin IOWA 37–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner