Toledo at Bowling Green, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

Toledo Rockets	23
Bowling Green Falcons	28

October 11, 2025 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Closing line: Toledo −10.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +79 Bowling Green very lucky · −79 Toledo

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Toledo wins 8, Bowling Green wins 2.

1 TOL 35 BGSU 0
2 TOL 39 BGSU 10
3 TOL 34 BGSU 10
4 TOL 30 BGSU 10
5 TOL 23 BGSU 7
6 TOL 30 BGSU 17
7 TOL 24 BGSU 16
8 TOL 19 BGSU 16
9 TOL 30 BGSU 34
10 TOL 7 BGSU 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Toledo wins 79% of them, Bowling Green 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bowling Green by 5.

Actual: Bowling Green by 5 494235282114707142128354249 ← Toledo win by Bowling Green win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Toledo by 17+	43.5%
Toledo by 9–16	18.4%
Toledo by 1–8	17.2%
Level after regulation	1.7%
Bowling Green by 1–8	9.6%
Bowling Green by 9–16	6.5%
Bowling Green by 17+	3.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Fumble bounces +11% TOL

3rd & 4th downs +3% BGSU

All luck +7% TOL

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to Toledo: the final margin was Bowling Green by 5, without the luck Bowling Green by 7.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Toledo 10 for 84 yards, Bowling Green 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 12:49	False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% BGSU +0.5 pts
Q2 10:49	Delay of Game on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% TOL +0.5 pts
Q2 0:28	Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yards	0% BGSU +0.7 pts
Q2 0:08	Holding on Toledo, 5 yards	0% BGSU +0.3 pts
Q3 10:19	Delay of Game on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% BGSU +0.6 pts
Q3 6:41	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Toledo, 15 yards	+1% BGSU +2.6 pts
Q3 3:47	Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yards	+3% BGSU +3.1 pts
Q3 2:55	False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% TOL +0.8 pts
Q4 12:14	Holding on Toledo, 10 yards	+3% BGSU +1.2 pts
Q4 10:56	Ineligible Downfield on Bowling Green, 5 yards	+2% TOL +0.7 pts
Q4 6:59	Illegal Block on Toledo, 4 yards	0% BGSU +0.2 pts
Q4 4:51	False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap	+7% TOL +2.0 pts
Q4 4:44	False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap	+8% BGSU +2.3 pts
Q4 2:38	Delay of Game on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% TOL +0.4 pts
Q4 2:04	Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 15 yards	+3% TOL +0.8 pts
Q4 0:06	Delay of Game on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% TOL +0.1 pts

When it happened

Bowling Green’s chance of winning

As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Bowling Green 50% Toledo Q1Q2Q3Q4 1348

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Bowling Green was ahead in it, below while Toledo was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q3 3:47	Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+3% BGSU	BGSU: Touchdown
2	Q3 2:40	Bowling Green converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected	+3% BGSU	BGSU: Touchdown
3	Q4 8:28	Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected	+3% BGSU	TOL: Punt
4	Q4 6:13	Toledo fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+9% TOL	TOL: Punt
5	Q4 4:53	Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected	+3% BGSU	TOL: Punt
6	Q4 4:51	False Start on Toledo, 5 yardsPre-snap flags	+7% TOL	BGSU: Punt
7	Q4 4:44	False Start on Toledo, 5 yardsPre-snap flags	+8% BGSU	BGSU: Punt
8	Q4 2:04	Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+3% TOL	TOL: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Toledo 12% · Bowling Green 88%

Final margin: Bowling Green by 5
Luck in points: 2.1 for Toledo
Luck-adjusted margin: Bowling Green by 7.1
Replay with same day's form: Toledo 79% · Bowling Green 21% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yardsQ3 3:47
Bowling Green converted 3rd & 11Q3 2:40
Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 2Q4 8:28
Toledo fumbled and recovered itQ4 6:13
Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 6Q4 4:53
False Start on Toledo, 5 yardsQ4 4:51
False Start on Toledo, 5 yardsQ4 4:44
Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 15 yardsQ4 2:04

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Toledo · Bowling Green

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