Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Alabama at Missouri, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Alabama beat Missouri 27–24, but the replays lean toward Missouri: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 17 points of win probability to Alabama.
Before kickoff Alabama was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:40 left): Alabama converted 4th & 8, worth 18 points of win probability to Alabama.
Final
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 27 |
|---|---|
 Missouri Tigers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 Alabama very lucky · −70 Missouri
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Alabama wins 3, Missouri wins 7.
- 1 ALA 27 MIZ 7
- 2 ALA 31 MIZ 21
- 3 ALA 17 MIZ 14
- 4 ALA 10 MIZ 13
- 5 ALA 24 MIZ 29
- 6 ALA 19 MIZ 27
- 7 ALA 16 MIZ 28
- 8 ALA 10 MIZ 27
- 9 ALA 14 MIZ 35
- 10 ALA 3 MIZ 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Alabama wins 30% of them, Missouri 70%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Alabama by 17+ | 5.3% |
| Alabama by 9–16 | 8.1% |
| Alabama by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 23.5% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Missouri by 17+ | 25.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Talty, 46 yds made · 61% expected
- R. Meyer, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- C. Talty, 22 yds made · 93% expected
- C. Talty, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
Penalties: Alabama 4 for 20 yards, Missouri 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:14 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Missouri, 15 yards | +3% ALA +1.6 pts |
| Q1 7:06 | Offside on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ALA +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:32 | Unnecessary Roughness on Missouri, 15 yards | +3% ALA +1.5 pts |
| Q1 0:36 | Illegal Motion on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:32 | Illegal Shift on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:00 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +2% ALA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:59 | Delay of Game on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:25 | Delay of Game on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Missouri’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:13 | Alabama converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:51 | Alabama converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +6% ALA | ALA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 14:45 | Alabama fumbled and Missouri recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% MIZ | ALA: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 11:00 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +6% MIZ | ALA: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 9:19 | C. Talty missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before | +10% MIZ | ALA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 7:02 | Missouri was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +12% ALA | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 5:40 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 243rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedAlabama converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +18% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:52 | Missouri converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +10% MIZ | MIZ: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Alabama 59% · Missouri 41%
- Final margin
- Alabama by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Alabama by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Alabama 30% · Missouri 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Alabama · 
Missouri
More from Week 7 2025
- Oklahoma vs Texas TEX 23–6 · replay 66% for the winner
- Georgia at Auburn UGA 20–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- Arkansas at Tennessee TENN 34–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Washington State at Ole Miss MISS 24–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- South Carolina at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Florida at Texas A&M TA&M 34–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner