Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Georgia at Auburn, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Auburn 20–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:00 left): Georgia converted 4th & 3, worth 13 points of win probability to Georgia.
Final
 Georgia Bulldogs | 20 |
|---|---|
 Auburn Tigers | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Georgia lucky · −29 Auburn
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia wins 7, Auburn wins 3.
- 1 UGA 27 AUB 0
- 2 UGA 28 AUB 7
- 3 UGA 20 AUB 3
- 4 UGA 13 AUB 0
- 5 UGA 13 AUB 3
- 6 UGA 7 AUB 0
- 7 UGA 13 AUB 10
- 8 UGA 14 AUB 17
- 9 UGA 10 AUB 17
- 10 UGA 7 AUB 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia wins 71% of them, Auburn 29%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia by 17+ | 21.3% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 21.9% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 23.7% |
| Level after regulation | 7.7% |
| Auburn by 1–8 | 15.5% |
| Auburn by 9–16 | 6.7% |
| Auburn by 17+ | 3.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. McPherson, 25 yds made · 94% expected
- P. Woodring, 29 yds made · 92% expected
- P. Woodring, 53 yds made · 53% expected
- P. Woodring, 45 yds missed · 68% expected
Penalties: Georgia 6 for 60 yards, Auburn 10 for 108 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:43 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 5 yards | +1% AUB +0.3 pts |
| Q1 3:27 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 15 yards | +1% AUB +0.3 pts |
| Q1 1:15 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | +1% UGA +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:07 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UGA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:27 | Delay of Game on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UGA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:04 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | +3% UGA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:03 | Personal Foul on Auburn, 15 yards | +4% UGA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:53 | Roughing the Passer on Auburn, 15 yards | +2% UGA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:44 | Offside on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UGA +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | Delay of Game on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:13 | Personal Foul on Auburn, 23 yards | +3% UGA +1.4 pts |
| Q3 13:13 | Pass Interference on Auburn, 10 yards | +7% UGA +2.6 pts |
| Q3 10:50 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards | +4% AUB +1.5 pts |
| Q3 7:58 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | +4% UGA +1.4 pts |
| Q4 12:10 | Personal Foul on Georgia, 15 yards | +3% AUB +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:10 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards | +5% AUB +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Auburn’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 2:00 | Auburn converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +7% AUB | AUB: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 13:13 | Pass Interference on Auburn, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% UGA | UGA: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 9:10 | Auburn was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +10% UGA | AUB: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 1:22 | P. Woodring made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 8 of 11 from 45+ before | +8% UGA | UGA: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 11:44 | P. Woodring missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 9 of 12 from 45+ before | +10% AUB | UGA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 9:46 | Georgia converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +11% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 5:49 | Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +7% AUB | UGA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 5:00 | Georgia converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +13% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia 84% · Auburn 16%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 10
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 6.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia 71% · Auburn 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Georgia · 
Auburn
More from Week 7 2025
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Oklahoma vs Texas TEX 23–6 · replay 66% for the winner
- Arkansas at Tennessee TENN 34–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Washington State at Ole Miss MISS 24–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- South Carolina at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Florida at Texas A&M TA&M 34–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner