Washington State at Ole Miss, Week 7 2025: who deserved it?

Final

Washington State Cougars	21
Ole Miss Rebels	24

October 11, 2025 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Closing line: Ole Miss −33.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +23 Ole Miss about even · −23 Washington State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington State wins 2, Ole Miss wins 8.

1 WSU 34 MISS 20
2 WSU 21 MISS 17
3 WSU 24 MISS 26
4 WSU 26 MISS 30
5 WSU 17 MISS 24
6 WSU 17 MISS 27
7 WSU 10 MISS 23
8 WSU 16 MISS 33
9 WSU 17 MISS 38
10 WSU 0 MISS 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington State wins 23% of them, Ole Miss 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 3.

Actual: Ole Miss by 3 494235282114707142128354249 ← Washington State win by Ole Miss win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Washington State by 17+	2.9%
Washington State by 9–16	7.0%
Washington State by 1–8	11.6%
Level after regulation	2.1%
Ole Miss by 1–8	24.0%
Ole Miss by 9–16	18.3%
Ole Miss by 17+	34.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Fumble bounces +6% WSU

Kicks +1% MISS

Pre-snap flags +1% MISS

3rd & 4th downs +1% WSU

All luck +4% WSU

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to Ole Miss: the final margin was Ole Miss by 3, without the luck Ole Miss by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

L. Carneiro, 47 yds missed · 61% expected
J. Stevens, 54 yds missed · 49% expected
L. Carneiro, 40 yds made · 74% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington State 7 for 55 yards, Ole Miss 8 for 99 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 8:45	Delay of Game on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% MISS +1.3 pts
Q1 0:25	Holding on Washington State, 10 yards, wiping out the play	+2% MISS +4.7 pts
Q2 13:07	Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play	+2% WSU +2.5 pts
Q2 4:56	Penalty on Ole Miss, 15 yards	0% WSU 0.0 pts
Q2 4:16	Holding on Washington State, 10 yards	+1% MISS +0.8 pts
Q2 0:23	Face Mask on Ole Miss, 15 yards	0% WSU +0.4 pts
Q3 12:56	Holding on Washington State, 10 yards	0% MISS +0.6 pts
Q3 11:43	Illegal Formation on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% MISS +0.8 pts
Q3 11:15	Roughing the Passer on Ole Miss, 15 yards	+3% WSU +3.5 pts
Q4 10:46	Illegal Formation on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% MISS +0.7 pts
Q4 5:02	Holding on Washington State, 10 yards	+1% MISS +1.3 pts
Q4 3:56	Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards	+1% WSU +3.0 pts
Q4 2:29	Penalty on Ole Miss, 15 yards	0% WSU +1.6 pts
Q4 1:14	Delay of Game on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% WSU +0.2 pts
Q4 0:03	Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 14 yards	0% WSU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Ole Miss’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Ole Miss 50% Washington State Q1Q2Q3Q4 1234578

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ole Miss was ahead in it, below while Washington State was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q3 11:15	Roughing the Passer on Ole Miss, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+3% WSU	WSU: Touchdown
2	Q3 9:23	Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected	+4% WSU	MISS: Punt
3	Q3 5:25	Washington State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected	+2% MISS	WSU: Punt
4	Q3 0:32	Ole Miss converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected	+5% MISS	MISS: Punt
5	Q4 6:51	Ole Miss converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected	+2% MISS	MISS: Punt
6	Q4 2:43	Washington State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected	+4% WSU	WSU: End of game
7	Q4 1:51	Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected	+5% WSU	MISS: Punt
8	Q4 0:15	Washington State converted 4th & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected	+7% WSU	WSU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Washington State · Ole Miss

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