Pac-12 · 2026 season, in progress
Washington State Cougars: luck and expected wins
Washington State is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck cost 0.4: the 36th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Washington State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Washington | L 10–24 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 2 | @ Kansas State | L 7–34 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Duquesne | W 48–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Arizona | L 24–34 | 27% | −27 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Washington State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Fresno State |  Washington State by 0.9 | 52% |
| Week 6 · Oct 9 | at Utah State |  Utah State by 0.5 | 49% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Oregon State |  Oregon State by 5.8 | 36% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Boise State |  Boise State by 9.8 | 28% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at San Diego State |  San Diego State by 2.1 | 45% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Colorado State | Washington State by 6.4 | 65% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Texas State |  Texas State by 6.5 | 35% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Washington State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | −0.03 | −0.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.10 | −11.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.16 | −7.3 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Washington State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Idaho | W 13–10 | 33% | +67 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs San Diego State | W 36–13 | 44% | +56 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Colorado State | W 20–3 | 70% | +30 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs Toledo | W 28–7 | 92% | +8 |
| 2025 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | vs Utah State | W 34–21 | 96% | +4 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Washington State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 10 | @ Oregon State | L 7–10 | 73% | −73 |
| 2025 Week 8 | @ Virginia | L 20–22 | 71% | −71 |
| 2026 Week 4 | vs Arizona | L 24–34 | 27% | −27 |
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Ole Miss | L 21–24 | 23% | −23 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs Washington | L 24–59 | 20% | −20 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6–6 | 6.4 | −0.4 | 1–4 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Idaho | W 13–10 | 33% | +67 |
| Week 2 | vs San Diego State | W 36–13 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 3 | @ North Texas | L 10–59 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 4 | vs Washington | L 24–59 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 5 | @ Colorado State | W 20–3 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 7 | @ Ole Miss | L 21–24 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 8 | @ Virginia | L 20–22 | 71% | −71 |
| Week 9 | vs Toledo | W 28–7 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 10 | @ Oregon State | L 7–10 | 73% | −73 |
| Week 12 | vs Louisiana Tech | W 28–3 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 13 | @ James Madison | L 20–24 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 14 | vs Oregon State | W 32–8 | 99% | +1 |
| Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | vs Utah State | W 34–21 | 96% | +4 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Pac-12 teams by luck
- Pac-12: Boise State,
Colorado State, 
Fresno State, Oregon State, San Diego State, Texas State, Utah State
How many wins does Washington State have in 2026?
1–3 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.4 wins.
Was Washington State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: −0.4 wins of luck, the 36th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Washington State’s luckiest season?
2025: 6–6 from play worth 6.4 wins, −0.4 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 1–3 from play worth 1.4 (−0.4).