2026 college football season · after Week 4

Every college football upset of 2026, and which were deserved

39 upsets in 2026 so far: games the betting underdog won. 22 were deserved on the day, 13 were luck. The biggest: Massachusetts beat Rutgers 37–21 as 29.5-point underdogs, and the replays back it up.

The luckiest of them: Iowa beat Michigan 20–19 and wins only 13% of replays with the way both teams played. The game, replayed

Biggest upset first, by the closing line. Before kickoff: the line as a win probability for the winner. Replay: how often the winner wins when the game is replayed 4,000 times with the way both teams played (our postgame win expectancy). Deserved: 60% or more.

#	Winner	Game	When	Before kickoff	Replay	Verdict
1	Massachusetts	37–21 @ Rutgers	Week 1 · Sep 3, 2026	3%	74%	Deserved
2	Oklahoma State	39–31 vs Oregon	Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026	6%	96%	Deserved
3	The Citadel	43–41 @ Charlotte	Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026	9%	23%	Lucky
4	Kentucky	31–21 @ Texas A&M	Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026	14%	79%	Deserved
5	Idaho State	29–17 @ Utah State	Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026	16%	16%	Lucky
6	Tulsa	24–10 vs Oklahoma State	Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026	19%	84%	Deserved
7	Minnesota	27–24 @ Washington	Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026	21%	40%	Coin flip
8	Wake Forest	30–27 @ Louisville	Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026	23%	38%	Lucky
9	West Virginia	38–27 vs Virginia	Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026	25%	93%	Deserved
10	SE Louisiana	38–35 @ UL Monroe	Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026	27%	28%	Lucky
11	Wisconsin	24–20 @ Penn State	Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026	27%	79%	Deserved
12	North Carolina	15–10 vs TCU	Week 1 · Aug 29, 2026	31%	75%	Deserved
13	Georgia State	31–17 @ Kennesaw State	Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026	31%	62%	Deserved
14	Colorado	14–13 @ Georgia Tech	Week 1 · Sep 3, 2026	34%	19%	Lucky
15	App State	27–24 @ East Carolina	Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026	34%	36%	Lucky
16	UAB	24–20 vs Navy	Week 4 · Sep 25, 2026	34%	32%	Lucky
17	Duke	31–27 @ Illinois	Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026	35%	25%	Lucky
18	Cincinnati	31–26 vs Kansas State	Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026	35%	83%	Deserved
19	Michigan	17–10 vs Oklahoma	Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026	36%	48%	Coin flip
20	Memphis	27–21 @ UNLV	Week 1 · Aug 29, 2026	39%	84%	Deserved
21	Florida Atlantic	38–30 vs Navy	Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026	39%	85%	Deserved
22	Iowa	20–19 @ Michigan	Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026	39%	13%	Lucky
23	California	21–18 @ Syracuse	Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026	40%	19%	Lucky
24	Middle Tennessee	27–20 vs Nevada	Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026	41%	84%	Deserved
25	UCF	21–13 vs TCU	Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026	41%	77%	Deserved
26	North Texas	44–6 vs UNLV	Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026	42%	99%	Deserved
27	Ole Miss	32–24 vs LSU	Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026	42%	69%	Deserved
28	Stanford	34–27 vs Georgia Tech	Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026	42%	59%	Coin flip
29	South Florida	28–24 @ Army	Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026	42%	38%	Lucky
30	Mississippi State	41–34 @ South Carolina	Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026	42%	73%	Deserved
31	James Madison	26–13 @ San Diego State	Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026	42%	40%	Lucky
32	East Carolina	20–17 @ Old Dominion	Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026	44%	54%	Coin flip
33	Wyoming	27–10 vs Hawai'i	Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026	44%	83%	Deserved
34	Nevada	49–14 vs Western Kentucky	Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026	46%	100%	Deserved
35	Central Michigan	24–10 vs Wyoming	Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026	46%	96%	Deserved
36	San José State	27–21 @ Eastern Michigan	Week 1 · Sep 4, 2026	46%	65%	Deserved
37	Tarleton State	20–13 @ Bowling Green	Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026	46%	77%	Deserved
38	UTSA	31–26 @ Texas State	Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026	46%	24%	Lucky
39	Oklahoma State	41–24 @ West Virginia	Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026	46%	91%	Deserved

2026 luck rankings · How the replays work