Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Navy at Florida Atlantic, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Florida Atlantic beat Navy 38–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida Atlantic wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Navy: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida Atlantic it would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers
Before kickoff Navy was a 61% favorite.
Final
 Navy Midshipmen | 30 |
|---|---|
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Florida Atlantic about even · −15 Navy
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Navy wins 1, Florida Atlantic wins 9.
- 1 NAVY 28 FAU 21
- 2 NAVY 14 FAU 17
- 3 NAVY 3 FAU 10
- 4 NAVY 21 FAU 31
- 5 NAVY 27 FAU 41
- 6 NAVY 13 FAU 30
- 7 NAVY 6 FAU 27
- 8 NAVY 17 FAU 42
- 9 NAVY 14 FAU 45
- 10 NAVY 7 FAU 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Navy
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida Atlantic it would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for Navy: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navy offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.18 | worse by 0.09 |
| Navy defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.34 | +0.08 | worse by 0.27 |
| Florida Atlantic offenseEPA per play gained | +0.34 | +0.09 | better by 0.26 |
| Florida Atlantic defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.11 | better by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Navy wins 15% of them, Florida Atlantic 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida Atlantic by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Navy by 17+ | 2.0% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 8.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Florida Atlantic by 1–8 | 16.9% |
| Florida Atlantic by 9–16 | 17.9% |
| Florida Atlantic by 17+ | 49.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Bartley, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
- C. Rogers, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
- C. Rogers, 60 yds made · 38% expected
Penalties: Navy 7 for 65 yards, Florida Atlantic 10 for 77 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:56 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAVY 0.0 pts |
| Q1 5:42 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NAVY +0.5 pts |
| Q1 5:17 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | +1% NAVY +0.5 pts |
| Q1 2:44 | Face Mask on Navy, 15 yards | +2% FAU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:29 | Ineligible Downfield on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% NAVY +1.5 pts |
| Q2 8:34 | Pass Interference on Navy, 15 yards | +2% FAU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:02 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NAVY +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Offside on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FAU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 12:15 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NAVY +1.5 pts |
| Q3 7:06 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | 0% NAVY +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:09 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 8 yards | 0% NAVY +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:05 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 2 yards, wiping out the play | 0% NAVY +1.0 pts |
| Q3 0:48 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 2 yards | 0% NAVY +1.5 pts |
| Q4 12:43 | Pass Interference on Navy, 15 yards | 0% FAU +1.8 pts |
| Q4 6:58 | Roughing the Passer on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards | 0% NAVY +0.4 pts |
| Q4 6:14 | Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards | 0% NAVY +1.9 pts |
| Q4 1:46 | Illegal Formation on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Florida Atlantic’s chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:37 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% NAVY | FAU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:23 | Navy was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +2% FAU | NAVY: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 7:44 | N. Bartley missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +5% FAU | NAVY: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 6:41 | Navy fumbled and Florida Atlantic recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% FAU | NAVY: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 3:37 | C. Rogers missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +3% NAVY | FAU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 13:20 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +6% NAVY | FAU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 10:37 | Navy was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% FAU | NAVY: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 9:29 | Ineligible Downfield on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% NAVY | NAVY: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Navy 51% · Florida Atlantic 49%
- Final margin
- Florida Atlantic by 8
- Luck in points
- 8.1 for Florida Atlantic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Navy by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Navy 15% · Florida Atlantic 85% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Navy · 
Florida Atlantic
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- App State at East Carolina APP 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Army USF 28–24 · replay 38% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- South Alabama at Tulane TULN 28–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UAB UAB 26–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- Charlotte at Ole Miss MISS 41–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- UNLV at North Texas UNT 44–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Rice at Notre Dame ND 52–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Illinois State at Northern Illinois ILST 28–24 · replay 17% for the winner