Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
App State at East Carolina, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
App State beat East Carolina 27–24, but the replays lean toward East Carolina: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to App State.
Before kickoff East Carolina was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:09 left): Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to App State.
Final
 App State Mountaineers | 27 |
|---|---|
 East Carolina Pirates | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +65 App State very lucky · −65 East Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. App State wins 4, East Carolina wins 6.
- 1 APP 37 ECU 14
- 2 APP 27 ECU 14
- 3 APP 35 ECU 28
- 4 APP 31 ECU 28
- 5 APP 21 ECU 24
- 6 APP 21 ECU 27
- 7 APP 7 ECU 17
- 8 APP 14 ECU 28
- 9 APP 17 ECU 37
- 10 APP 10 ECU 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
App State wins 35% of them, East Carolina 65%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: App State by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| App State by 17+ | 8.3% |
| App State by 9–16 | 9.6% |
| App State by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| East Carolina by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| East Carolina by 9–16 | 16.8% |
| East Carolina by 17+ | 26.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Perez, 33 yds missed · 84% expected
- J. London, 41 yds made · 71% expected
- N. Perez, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- J. London, 37 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: App State 13 for 80 yards, East Carolina 8 for 72 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:29 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ECU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ECU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ECU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:59 | Pass Interference on East Carolina, 12 yards | +7% APP +3.1 pts |
| Q2 13:02 | Illegal Touching on East Carolina, 0 yards, wiping out the play | +5% APP +2.2 pts |
| Q2 12:04 | Personal Foul on East Carolina, 15 yards | +4% APP +1.5 pts |
| Q2 7:42 | Personal Foul on App State, 2 yards | 0% ECU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 5:25 | Illegal Formation on App State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% ECU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 4:21 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ECU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 4:21 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 1:25 | Offside on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 10:57 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% APP +2.1 pts |
| Q3 10:04 | Delay of Game on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% APP +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:09 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ECU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 8:49 | Personal Foul on East Carolina, 15 yards | +5% APP +1.6 pts |
| Q3 2:16 | Holding on App State, 10 yards | +4% ECU +1.9 pts |
| Q4 14:09 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% APP +3.1 pts |
| Q4 8:38 | Delay of Game on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ECU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:24 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% APP +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:53 | Kick Catch Interference on App State, 15 yards | +2% ECU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:26 | Holding on App State, 8 yards | 0% ECU +1.2 pts |
When it happened
East Carolina’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:35 | East Carolina fumbled and App State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% APP | ECU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 14:59 | Pass Interference on East Carolina, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +7% APP | APP: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 13:02 | Illegal Touching on East Carolina, 0 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% APP | APP: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 1:21 | N. Perez made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him | +8% APP | ECU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 1:20 | East Carolina was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% APP | ECU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 9:20 | App State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% APP | APP: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 1:36 | App State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +7% APP | APP: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 14:09 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% APP | APP: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
App State 21% · East Carolina 79%
- Final margin
- App State by 3
- Luck in points
- 8.1 for App State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- East Carolina by 5.1
- Replay with same day's form
- App State 35% · East Carolina 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
App State · 
East Carolina
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- South Florida at Army USF 28–24 · replay 38% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Marshall MRSH 28–26 · replay 43% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- South Alabama at Tulane TULN 28–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- Georgia State at Kennesaw State GAST 31–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UAB UAB 26–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- Navy at Florida Atlantic FAU 38–30 · replay 85% for the winner
- Alabama State at Troy TROY 34–17 · replay 95% for the winner