Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
South Florida at Army, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
South Florida beat Army 28–24, but the replays lean toward Army: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff Army was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:19 left): South Florida converted 4th & 6, worth 14 points of win probability to South Florida.
Final
 South Florida Bulls | 28 |
|---|---|
 Army Black Knights | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 South Florida very lucky · −62 Army
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Florida wins 4, Army wins 6.
- 1 USF 45 ARMY 22
- 2 USF 27 ARMY 14
- 3 USF 31 ARMY 24
- 4 USF 31 ARMY 28
- 5 USF 38 ARMY 41
- 6 USF 20 ARMY 24
- 7 USF 14 ARMY 21
- 8 USF 20 ARMY 31
- 9 USF 21 ARMY 37
- 10 USF 17 ARMY 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Florida wins 38% of them, Army 62%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Florida by 17+ | 7.4% |
| South Florida by 9–16 | 9.7% |
| South Florida by 1–8 | 16.8% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Army by 1–8 | 23.8% |
| Army by 9–16 | 17.8% |
| Army by 17+ | 19.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: South Florida 3 for 15 yards, Army 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:10 | Unnecessary Roughness on Army, 7 yards | +1% USF +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:05 | Offside on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARMY +0.3 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Disconcerting Signals on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% ARMY +1.7 pts |
| Q3 9:04 | Pass Interference on Army, 8 yards | +12% ARMY +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:18 | Unnecessary Roughness on Army, 15 yards | +5% USF +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:10 | Illegal Substitution on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARMY +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on Army, 15 yards | +1% USF +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Army’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 11:26 | South Florida converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% USF | USF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 9:04 | Pass Interference on Army, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +12% ARMY | USF: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 8:18 | Unnecessary Roughness on Army, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% USF | USF: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 6:30 | Army was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +5% USF | ARMY: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 0:42 | Army converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% ARMY | ARMY: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 14:08 | Army was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% USF | ARMY: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 11:44 | South Florida was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +8% ARMY | USF: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:19 | South Florida converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +14% USF | USF: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Florida 61% · Army 39%
- Final margin
- South Florida by 4
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for South Florida
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Florida by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- South Florida 38% · Army 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
South Florida · 
Army
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- App State at East Carolina APP 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- South Alabama at Tulane TULN 28–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UAB UAB 26–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- Navy at Florida Atlantic FAU 38–30 · replay 85% for the winner
- Charlotte at Ole Miss MISS 41–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- UNLV at North Texas UNT 44–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Rice at Notre Dame ND 52–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Illinois State at Northern Illinois ILST 28–24 · replay 17% for the winner