luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

UNLV at North Texas, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

North Texas beat UNLV 44–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Texas wins 10 of 10.

An off day for UNLV: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against North Texas it would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers

Before kickoff UNLV was a 58% favorite.

Final

UNLV Rebels 6
North Texas Mean Green 44

September 12, 2026 · DATCU Stadium · Closing line: UNLV −3

Luck index +1 North Texas about even · −1 UNLV

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UNLV wins 0, North Texas wins 10.

  1. 1 UNLV 24 UNT 31
  2. 2 UNLV 17 UNT 31
  3. 3 UNLV 14 UNT 34
  4. 4 UNLV 14 UNT 38
  5. 5 UNLV 0 UNT 27
  6. 6 UNLV 0 UNT 30
  7. 7 UNLV 0 UNT 34
  8. 8 UNLV 7 UNT 45
  9. 9 UNLV 21 UNT 65
  10. 10 UNLV 7 UNT 58

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for UNLV

Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against North Texas it would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.

43 points apart for UNLV: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
UNLV offenseEPA per play gained −0.02 +0.11 worse by 0.13
UNLV defenseEPA per play allowed +0.26 +0.11 worse by 0.15
North Texas offenseEPA per play gained +0.26 +0.16 better by 0.10
North Texas defenseEPA per play allowed −0.02 +0.12 better by 0.14

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

UNLV wins 1% of them, North Texas 99%. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UNLV by 17+0.1%
UNLV by 9–160.1%
UNLV by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.2%
North Texas by 1–82.1%
North Texas by 9–165.1%
North Texas by 17+92.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to North Texas: the final margin was North Texas by 38, without the luck North Texas by 35.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. De Freitas, 35 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 27 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Villela, 39 yds made · 73% expected
  • R. Villela, 37 yds made · 77% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 41 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UNLV 8 for 71 yards, North Texas 10 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:34 Delay of Game on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNT +0.3 pts
Q1 12:23 Holding on North Texas, 10 yards +1% UNLV +0.8 pts
Q1 6:31 Delay of Game on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNLV +0.3 pts
Q1 5:05 Holding on North Texas, 9 yards, wiping out the play +5% UNLV +2.4 pts
Q1 1:43 Holding on UNLV, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% UNT +2.4 pts
Q1 0:38 Illegal Block on North Texas, 10 yards +1% UNLV +0.6 pts
Q2 12:05 Holding on UNLV, 10 yards +2% UNT +1.2 pts
Q2 10:30 False Start on North Texas, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% UNT +0.2 pts
Q2 7:09 Holding on UNLV, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% UNT +2.8 pts
Q2 3:40 False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UNLV +1.0 pts
Q2 2:22 Illegal Formation on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNLV +1.2 pts
Q3 11:39 Pass Interference on North Texas, 15 yards +1% UNLV +1.3 pts
Q3 10:55 Intentional Grounding on UNLV, 7 yards 0% UNT +0.4 pts
Q3 7:51 Pass Interference on UNLV, 15 yards +1% UNT +2.0 pts
Q3 5:49 Illegal Shift on North Texas, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% UNLV +2.5 pts
Q4 12:11 False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNLV +0.4 pts
Q4 8:33 Pass Interference on UNLV, 9 yards 0% UNT +1.7 pts
Q4 1:12 False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.4 pts

When it happened

North Texas’s chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while North Texas was ahead in it, below while UNLV was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:48 D. De Freitas made a 35-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +5% UNT UNT: Field goal
2 Q1 9:22 UNLV converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% UNLV UNLV: Turnover
3 Q1 9:02 UNLV fumbled and North Texas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% UNT UNLV: Turnover
4 Q1 8:36 North Texas converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% UNT UNT: Field goal
5 Q1 5:10 UNLV fumbled and North Texas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% UNT UNLV: Punt
6 Q1 5:05 Holding on North Texas, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% UNLV UNLV: Punt
7 Q2 8:08 UNLV converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% UNLV UNLV: Field goal
8 Q2 7:09 Holding on UNLV, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% UNT UNT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UNLV 0% · North Texas 100%

Final margin
North Texas by 38
Luck in points
2.5 for North Texas
Luck-adjusted margin
North Texas by 35.5
Replay with same day's form
UNLV 1% · North Texas 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · UNLV · North Texas

More from Week 2 2026

Every week 2 game, 2026