Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
South Alabama at Tulane, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Tulane beat South Alabama 28–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Tulane wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Tulane was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:41 left): South Alabama converted 3rd & 9, worth 21 points of win probability to South Alabama.
Final
 South Alabama Jaguars | 24 |
|---|---|
 Tulane Green Wave | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Tulane lucky · −44 South Alabama
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Alabama wins 4, Tulane wins 6.
- 1 USA 42 TULN 21
- 2 USA 31 TULN 17
- 3 USA 24 TULN 17
- 4 USA 17 TULN 14
- 5 USA 21 TULN 24
- 6 USA 13 TULN 17
- 7 USA 23 TULN 31
- 8 USA 14 TULN 28
- 9 USA 14 TULN 31
- 10 USA 3 TULN 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Alabama wins 44% of them, Tulane 56%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Alabama by 17+ | 9.3% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 12.3% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 17.2% |
| Level after regulation | 6.0% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 16.8% |
| Tulane by 17+ | 17.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Little, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- J. Courville, 45 yds missed · 62% expected
- D. Little, 34 yds missed · 82% expected
Penalties: South Alabama 6 for 46 yards, Tulane 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:01 | Ineligible Downfield on South Alabama, 5 yards | +3% TULN +2.2 pts |
| Q2 14:49 | Face Mask on Tulane, 15 yards | +4% USA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | Holding on South Alabama, 11 yards | 0% TULN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:45 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:32 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:28 | Ineligible Downfield on South Alabama, 5 yards | +3% TULN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:47 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +2% TULN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:52 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +6% TULN +1.5 pts |
| Q4 5:55 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TULN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:03 | Delay of Game on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Tulane’s chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:30 | South Alabama was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedTulane fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% TULN | USA: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 10:16 | Tulane converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +7% TULN | TULN: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 9:04 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% USA | USA: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q3 7:49 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +8% USA | USA: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 5:11 | D. Little missed a 34-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +9% TULN | USA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 8:41 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedSouth Alabama fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +21% USA | USA: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:17 | Tulane converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +12% TULN | TULN: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:53 | South Alabama was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% TULN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Alabama 21% · Tulane 79%
- Final margin
- Tulane by 4
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for South Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulane by 5.1
- Replay with same day's form
- South Alabama 44% · Tulane 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
South Alabama · 
Tulane
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- App State at East Carolina APP 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Army USF 28–24 · replay 38% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Marshall MRSH 28–26 · replay 43% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- Georgia State at Kennesaw State GAST 31–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UAB UAB 26–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- Navy at Florida Atlantic FAU 38–30 · replay 85% for the winner
- Alabama State at Troy TROY 34–17 · replay 95% for the winner