Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Tulsa at Sam Houston, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Tulsa beat Sam Houston 23–17, but the replays lean toward Sam Houston: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Tulsa won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Sam Houston it would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%. The numbers
Before kickoff Tulsa was a 79% favorite.
Final
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 23 |
|---|---|
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +73 Tulsa very lucky · −73 Sam Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tulsa wins 3, Sam Houston wins 7.
- 1 TLSA 38 SHSU 21
- 2 TLSA 26 SHSU 17
- 3 TLSA 24 SHSU 21
- 4 TLSA 35 SHSU 37
- 5 TLSA 16 SHSU 21
- 6 TLSA 13 SHSU 23
- 7 TLSA 17 SHSU 31
- 8 TLSA 17 SHSU 34
- 9 TLSA 13 SHSU 35
- 10 TLSA 6 SHSU 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Tulsa won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Sam Houston it would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for Tulsa: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.05 | worse by 0.03 |
| Tulsa defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.04 | better by 0.00 |
| Sam Houston offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | −0.00 | better by 0.04 |
| Sam Houston defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.09 | better by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tulsa wins 27% of them, Sam Houston 73%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulsa by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tulsa by 17+ | 4.8% |
| Tulsa by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Tulsa by 1–8 | 13.4% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 28.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- O. Carey, 41 yds made · 71% expected
- S. Carpenter, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Tulsa 4 for 25 yards, Sam Houston 8 for 76 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:41 | Offside on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SHSU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 12:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Sam Houston, 0 yards | +1% TLSA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:42 | Offside on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHSU +0.1 pts |
| Q1 0:31 | Targeting on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +5% TLSA +2.5 pts |
| Q2 8:37 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | +1% TLSA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 6:43 | Face Mask on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +2% TLSA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:09 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +5% TLSA +2.2 pts |
| Q2 3:45 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 6 yards | +5% TLSA +2.1 pts |
| Q2 0:04 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TLSA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 2:42 | Intentional Grounding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | +6% TLSA +3.1 pts |
| Q3 0:14 | Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% SHSU +3.6 pts |
| Q4 1:43 | Unnecessary Roughness on Tulsa, 5 yards | +8% SHSU +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Sam Houston’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:31 | Targeting on Sam Houston, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% TLSA | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 5:09 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% TLSA | TLSA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 3:45 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 6 yardsJudgment calls | +5% TLSA | TLSA: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 10:10 | Tulsa converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedTulsa missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +8% TLSA | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:42 | Intentional Grounding on Sam Houston, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% TLSA | TLSA: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 0:14 | Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% SHSU | SHSU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 10:06 | Tulsa converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% TLSA | TLSA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:43 | Unnecessary Roughness on Tulsa, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +8% SHSU | SHSU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tulsa 75% · Sam Houston 25%
- Final margin
- Tulsa by 6
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for Tulsa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulsa by 4.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Tulsa 27% · Sam Houston 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Tulsa · 
Sam Houston
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Ohio OHIO 29–27 · replay 27% for the winner
- App State at East Carolina APP 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Army USF 28–24 · replay 38% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Marshall MRSH 28–26 · replay 43% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Hawai'i HAW 29–19 · replay 44% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- South Alabama at Tulane TULN 28–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- Georgia State at Kennesaw State GAST 31–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Liberty LIB 24–23 · replay 63% for the winner
- Delaware at Vanderbilt VAN 35–26 · replay 74% for the winner