luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Jacksonville State at Ohio, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Ohio beat Jacksonville State 29–27, but the replays lean toward Jacksonville State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Ohio.

Before kickoff Ohio was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (OT): W. Hryszko had a 42-yard field goal blocked, worth 40 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.

Final (OT)

Jacksonville State Gamecocks 27
Ohio Bobcats 29

September 12, 2026 · Peden Stadium · Closing line: Ohio −1.5

Luck index +73 Ohio very lucky · −73 Jacksonville State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jacksonville State wins 7, Ohio wins 3.

  1. 1 JXST 28 OHIO 0
  2. 2 JXST 21 OHIO 0
  3. 3 JXST 28 OHIO 13
  4. 4 JXST 20 OHIO 7
  5. 5 JXST 9 OHIO 0
  6. 6 JXST 10 OHIO 3
  7. 7 JXST 17 OHIO 14
  8. 8 JXST 7 OHIO 10
  9. 9 JXST 7 OHIO 14
  10. 10 JXST 17 OHIO 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jacksonville State wins 73% of them, Ohio 27%, counting the 10% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jacksonville State by 17+20.9%
Jacksonville State by 9–1621.9%
Jacksonville State by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation9.5%
Ohio by 1–814.5%
Ohio by 9–165.9%
Ohio by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to Ohio: the final margin was Ohio by 2, without the luck Ohio by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Rippa, 22 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Hryszko, 47 yds blocked · 59% expected
  • W. Hryszko, 23 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Rippa, 38 yds missed · 76% expected
  • W. Hryszko, 42 yds blocked · 68% expected
  • W. Hryszko, 43 yds made · 65% expected
  • G. Rippa, 28 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jacksonville State 3 for 30 yards, Ohio 2 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:10 Pass Interference on Ohio, 15 yards 0% JXST +1.2 pts
Q2 12:39 Targeting on Jacksonville State, 15 yards +3% OHIO +1.6 pts
Q2 6:47 Ineligible Downfield on Jacksonville State, 5 yards, wiping out the play +14% OHIO +5.8 pts
Q2 2:00 Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% OHIO +3.2 pts
Q4 4:38 Ineligible Downfield on Ohio, 5 yards +3% JXST +0.7 pts

When it happened

Ohio’s chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ohio was ahead in it, below while Jacksonville State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:47 Ineligible Downfield on Jacksonville State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% OHIO OHIO: Missed field goal
2 Q2 6:02 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% JXST JXST: Turnover
3 Q2 0:44 Jacksonville State fumbled and Ohio recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% OHIO JXST: Missed field goal
4 Q3 10:53 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% JXST JXST: Touchdown
5 OT W. Hryszko had a 42-yard field goal blockedKicks · 68% expected for him +40% JXST –
6 2OT W. Hryszko made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him +10% JXST –
7 2OT G. Rippa made a 28-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +12% OHIO –
8 4OT Ohio’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +20% OHIO –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jacksonville State 41% · Ohio 59%

Final margin
Ohio by 2
Luck in points
0.5 for Ohio
Luck-adjusted margin
Ohio by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Jacksonville State 73% · Ohio 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Jacksonville State · Ohio

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