Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Robert Morris at Akron, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Akron beat Robert Morris 45–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Akron wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Akron was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Robert Morris Colonials | 10 |
|---|---|
 Akron Zips | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Akron about even · −1 Robert Morris
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Robert Morris wins 0, Akron wins 10.
- 1 RMU 31 AKR 38
- 2 RMU 3 AKR 19
- 3 RMU 38 AKR 59
- 4 RMU 10 AKR 37
- 5 RMU 21 AKR 51
- 6 RMU 10 AKR 45
- 7 RMU 24 AKR 63
- 8 RMU 14 AKR 58
- 9 RMU 0 AKR 48
- 10 RMU 7 AKR 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Robert Morris wins 1% of them, Akron 99%. The line is what actually happened: Akron by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Robert Morris by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Robert Morris by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Robert Morris by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 5.4% |
| Akron by 17+ | 91.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Valens, 22 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Schramm, 38 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Robert Morris 1 for 10 yards, Akron 7 for 63 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:47 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RMU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 8:31 | Holding on Akron, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% RMU +5.3 pts |
| Q1 8:31 | Illegal Use of Hands on Robert Morris, 10 yards | 0% AKR +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:27 | Face Mask on Akron, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% RMU +1.8 pts |
| Q2 3:59 | Holding on Akron, 5 yards | 0% RMU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Pass Interference on Akron, 15 yards | 0% RMU +1.7 pts |
| Q2 0:01 | Holding on Akron, 8 yards, wiping out the play | +1% RMU +4.1 pts |
| Q4 8:40 | Illegal Formation on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RMU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Akron’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Robert Morris was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedRobert Morris fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% RMU | RMU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:31 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedAkron converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedHolding on Akron, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsIllegal Use of Hands on Robert Morris, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% RMU | AKR: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 3:52 | Robert Morris converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedRobert Morris converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +1% RMU | RMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 5:45 | Akron converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +1% AKR | AKR: End of half |
| 5 | Q2 0:51 | Akron was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +1% RMU | AKR: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:01 | Holding on Akron, 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% RMU | RMU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 15:00 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 16% expected | +1% AKR | AKR: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 11:26 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedRobert Morris fumbled and Akron recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% AKR | AKR: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Robert Morris 0% · Akron 100%
- Final margin
- Akron by 35
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for Akron
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Akron by 33.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Robert Morris 1% · Akron 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Robert Morris · 
Akron
More from Week 2 2026
- Jacksonville State at Ohio OHIO 29–27 · replay 27% for the winner
- Colgate at Central Michigan CMU 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Stony Brook at Ball State BALL 41–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Buffalo at Florida International FIU 33–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Michigan State MSU 35–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Wofford at Kent State KENT 36–15 · replay 99% for the winner
- Sacred Heart at Massachusetts MASS 37–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Fresno State FRES 49–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Holy Cross at Miami (OH) M-OH 45–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Wagner at James Madison JMU 87–3 · replay 100% for the winner
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- Mercyhurst at New Mexico UNM 70–7 · replay 100% for the winner