Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Wagner at James Madison, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Wagner 87–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, James Madison wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff James Madison was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Wagner Seahawks | 3 |
|---|---|
 James Madison Dukes | 87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 James Madison about even · 0 Wagner
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wagner wins 0, James Madison wins 10.
- 1 WAG 7 JMU 28
- 2 WAG 7 JMU 37
- 3 WAG 17 JMU 52
- 4 WAG 3 JMU 42
- 5 WAG 17 JMU 59
- 6 WAG 10 JMU 56
- 7 WAG 0 JMU 49
- 8 WAG 3 JMU 56
- 9 WAG 0 JMU 59
- 10 WAG 0 JMU 69
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wagner wins 0% of them, James Madison 100%. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 84.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wagner by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Wagner by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Wagner by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| James Madison by 17+ | 97.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. DiSalvatore, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- M. Suarez, 46 yds made · 62% expected
Penalties: Wagner 12 for 65 yards, James Madison 6 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Delay of Game on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 13:31 | Personal Foul on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% WAG +1.2 pts |
| Q1 8:47 | Illegal Substitution on Wagner, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAG +0.1 pts |
| Q1 7:40 | False Start on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:40 | Illegal Snap on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:28 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | 0% WAG +0.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | 0% WAG +2.3 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:09 | False Start on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 7:53 | False Start on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:21 | Personal Foul on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% WAG +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Illegal Formation on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.1 pts |
| Q3 14:20 | False Start on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:18 | Illegal Block on James Madison, 10 yards | 0% WAG +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:06 | False Start on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 0:06 | Pass Interference on Wagner, 15 yards | 0% JMU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% WAG +1.7 pts |
| Q4 6:48 | Delay of Game on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.4 pts |
When it happened
James Madison’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Wagner was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedDelay of Game on Wagner, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% JMU | WAG: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 13:31 | Wagner converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedWagner converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedWagner was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedPersonal Foul on James Madison, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by James MadisonSpecial teams | +0% JMU | WAG: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 9:01 | J. DiSalvatore made a 40-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him | +0% JMU | WAG: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:47 | Illegal Substitution on Wagner, 0 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% WAG | JMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 7:46 | James Madison converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +0% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 7:40 | Wagner was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedFalse Start on Wagner, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsIllegal Snap on Wagner, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% JMU | WAG: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 5:28 | James Madison converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedJames Madison converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedHolding on James Madison, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 13:09 | Wagner converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedWagner was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedWagner was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedFalse Start on Wagner, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% JMU | WAG: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wagner 0% · James Madison 100%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 84
- Luck in points
- 10.0 for James Madison
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 74.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Wagner 0% · James Madison 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Wagner · 
James Madison
More from Week 2 2026
- App State at East Carolina APP 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Marshall MRSH 28–26 · replay 43% for the winner
- South Alabama at Tulane TULN 28–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- Georgia State at Kennesaw State GAST 31–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
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- Alabama State at Troy TROY 34–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech VT 44–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Louisiana at USC USC 49–30 · replay 96% for the winner
- Fordham at Coastal Carolina CCU 45–7 · replay 99% for the winner
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