luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Fordham at Coastal Carolina, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Coastal Carolina beat Fordham 45–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Coastal Carolina wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Coastal Carolina was a 99% favorite.

Final

Fordham Rams 7
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 45

September 12, 2026 · Brooks Stadium (SC) · Closing line: Coastal Carolina −36.5

Luck index +1 Coastal Carolina about even · −1 Fordham

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Fordham wins 0, Coastal Carolina wins 10.

  1. 1 FOR 31 CCU 40
  2. 2 FOR 14 CCU 30
  3. 3 FOR 24 CCU 47
  4. 4 FOR 28 CCU 55
  5. 5 FOR 6 CCU 36
  6. 6 FOR 7 CCU 41
  7. 7 FOR 17 CCU 55
  8. 8 FOR 13 CCU 55
  9. 9 FOR 14 CCU 63
  10. 10 FOR 7 CCU 65

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Fordham wins 1% of them, Coastal Carolina 99%. The line is what actually happened: Coastal Carolina by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Fordham by 17+0.1%
Fordham by 9–160.3%
Fordham by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.4%
Coastal Carolina by 1–83.8%
Coastal Carolina by 9–166.5%
Coastal Carolina by 17+88.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.2 points to Coastal Carolina: the final margin was Coastal Carolina by 38, without the luck Coastal Carolina by 26.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Fordham 6 for 45 yards, Coastal Carolina 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:01 Offside on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FOR +0.6 pts
Q1 9:19 Delay of Game on Fordham, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CCU +0.5 pts
Q2 13:40 False Start on Fordham, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FOR +1.1 pts
Q2 10:24 False Start on Fordham, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CCU +0.6 pts
Q2 8:36 Unnecessary Roughness on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards 0% FOR +0.9 pts
Q2 6:57 Holding on Fordham, 10 yards 0% CCU +1.2 pts
Q2 1:40 Illegal Formation on Fordham, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CCU +0.3 pts
Q2 1:15 Illegal Formation on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FOR +0.3 pts
Q2 0:47 Face Mask on Fordham, 15 yards 0% CCU +1.6 pts
Q3 6:55 False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FOR +1.5 pts
Q4 6:59 Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards 0% FOR +0.6 pts
Q4 5:42 Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards 0% FOR +0.6 pts

When it happened

Coastal Carolina’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Coastal Carolina was ahead in it, below while Fordham was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:43 Coastal Carolina fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% CCU CCU: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:09 Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +0% CCU CCU: Punt
3 Q1 5:14 Fordham fumbled and Coastal Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% CCU FOR: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:37 Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +0% CCU CCU: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:24 False Start on Fordham, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% CCU CCU: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 9:29 Fordham was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% CCU FOR: Punt
7 Q2 7:02 Coastal Carolina was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +0% FOR CCU: Touchdown
8 Q2 6:57 Holding on Fordham, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% CCU CCU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Fordham 0% · Coastal Carolina 100%

Final margin
Coastal Carolina by 38
Luck in points
11.2 for Coastal Carolina
Luck-adjusted margin
Coastal Carolina by 26.8
Replay with same day's form
Fordham 1% · Coastal Carolina 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Fordham · Coastal Carolina

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