luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Louisiana at USC, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

USC beat Louisiana 49–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, USC wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff USC was a 98% favorite.

Final

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 30
USC Trojans 49

September 12, 2026 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: USC −30.5

Luck index +4 USC about even · −4 Louisiana

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Louisiana wins 0, USC wins 10.

  1. 1 UL 17 USC 20
  2. 2 UL 21 USC 28
  3. 3 UL 17 USC 28
  4. 4 UL 3 USC 17
  5. 5 UL 7 USC 24
  6. 6 UL 7 USC 27
  7. 7 UL 7 USC 30
  8. 8 UL 3 USC 30
  9. 9 UL 14 USC 45
  10. 10 UL 3 USC 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Louisiana wins 4% of them, USC 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: USC by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Louisiana by 17+0.1%
Louisiana by 9–160.5%
Louisiana by 1–82.7%
Level after regulation0.5%
USC by 1–88.6%
USC by 9–1616.6%
USC by 17+71.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to USC: the final margin was USC by 19, without the luck USC by 12.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Louisiana 6 for 65 yards, USC 7 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:25 False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UL +0.7 pts
Q2 14:53 Holding on USC, 10 yards 0% UL +0.6 pts
Q2 10:52 Face Mask on USC, 15 yards 0% UL +1.6 pts
Q2 9:48 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisiana, 15 yards 0% USC +2.2 pts
Q2 7:22 Holding on USC, 10 yards 0% UL +1.0 pts
Q2 5:29 False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UL +0.8 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USC +0.4 pts
Q3 14:20 Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% USC +2.1 pts
Q3 8:22 Face Mask on USC, 15 yards 0% UL +1.6 pts
Q3 4:02 Holding on USC, 10 yards 0% UL +0.6 pts
Q4 14:19 Personal Foul on Louisiana, 15 yards 0% USC +1.6 pts
Q4 12:42 Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards 0% USC +2.1 pts
Q4 5:29 Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% USC +2.1 pts

When it happened

USC’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while USC was ahead in it, below while Louisiana was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:08 Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +0% USC UL: Field goal
2 Q1 4:57 USC converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +1% USC USC: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:52 Face Mask on USC, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% UL UL: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:27 USC converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +1% USC USC: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:22 Holding on USC, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% UL UL: Punt
6 Q2 6:07 USC converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +0% USC USC: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:24 Return touchdown by USCSpecial teams +1% USC USC: End of half
8 Q4 5:29 Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% USC USC: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Louisiana 1% · USC 99%

Final margin
USC by 19
Luck in points
6.8 for USC
Luck-adjusted margin
USC by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
Louisiana 4% · USC 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Louisiana · USC

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