Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress

USC Trojans: luck and expected wins

USC is 4–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 40th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often USC wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs San José State	W 42–26	98%	+2
Week 1	vs Fresno State	W 39–0	99%	+1
Week 2	vs Louisiana	W 49–30	96%	+4
Week 3	@ Rutgers	W 42–35	25%	+75
Week 4	vs Oregon	L 27–41	47%	−47

Wk 1 +2 vs SJSU

Wk 1 +1 vs FRES

Wk 2 +4 vs UL

Wk 3 +75 @ RUTG

Wk 4 −47 vs ORE

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	USC win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Washington	USC by 9.8	73%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Penn State	Penn State by 6.6	34%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Wisconsin	USC by 2.3	56%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Ohio State	Ohio State by 10.5	26%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Indiana	Indiana by 15.1	19%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Maryland	USC by 20.1	88%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at UCLA	UCLA by 2.8	44%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in USC’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.04	+3.9
Kicks	−0.09	−2.7
3rd & 4th downs	−0.17	+4.9

Luckiest wins

Wins USC takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 3	@ Rutgers	W 42–35	25%	+75
2025 Week 12	vs Iowa	W 26–21	36%	+64
2025 Week 10	@ Nebraska	W 21–17	71%	+29
2025 Week 3	@ Purdue	W 33–17	74%	+26
2025 Week 7	vs Michigan	W 31–13	85%	+15

Unluckiest losses

Losses USC would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Valero Alamo Bowl	vs TCU	L 27–30	66%	−66
2026 Week 4	vs Oregon	L 27–41	47%	−47
2025 Week 8	@ Notre Dame	L 24–34	27%	−27
2025 Week 5	@ Illinois	L 32–34	24%	−24
2025 Week 13	@ Oregon	L 27–42	6%	−6

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	9–3	8.0	+1.0	2–1	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Missouri State	W 73–13	100%	0
Week 2	vs Georgia Southern	W 59–20	100%	0
Week 3	@ Purdue	W 33–17	74%	+26
Week 4	vs Michigan State	W 45–31	89%	+11
Week 5	@ Illinois	L 32–34	24%	−24
Week 7	vs Michigan	W 31–13	85%	+15
Week 8	@ Notre Dame	L 24–34	27%	−27
Week 10	@ Nebraska	W 21–17	71%	+29
Week 11	vs Northwestern	W 38–17	94%	+6
Week 12	vs Iowa	W 26–21	36%	+64
Week 13	@ Oregon	L 27–42	6%	−6
Week 14	vs UCLA	W 29–10	93%	+7
Valero Alamo Bowl	vs TCU	L 27–30	66%	−66