luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Valero Alamo Bowl · December 30, 2025

USC vs TCU, Valero Alamo Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

TCU beat USC 30–27, but the replays lean toward USC: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff USC was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:49 left): USC converted 3rd & 8, worth 13 points of win probability to USC.

Final (OT)

USC Trojans 27
TCU Horned Frogs 30

December 30, 2025 · Alamodome · Closing line: USC −4.5

Luck index +66 TCU very lucky · −66 USC

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. USC wins 7, TCU wins 3.

  1. 1 USC 30 TCU 3
  2. 2 USC 35 TCU 17
  3. 3 USC 35 TCU 21
  4. 4 USC 24 TCU 14
  5. 5 USC 14 TCU 7
  6. 6 USC 26 TCU 20
  7. 7 USC 26 TCU 24
  8. 8 USC 10 TCU 14
  9. 9 USC 17 TCU 27
  10. 10 USC 10 TCU 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

USC wins 66% of them, TCU 34%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: TCU by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
USC by 17+20.1%
USC by 9–1618.3%
USC by 1–827.1%
Level after regulation2.4%
TCU by 1–816.0%
TCU by 9–1610.2%
TCU by 17+6.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to USC: the final margin was TCU by 3, without the luck TCU by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Sayeri, 40 yds made · 73% expected
  • R. Sayeri, 28 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Sayeri, 41 yds made · 72% expected
  • K. Lemmermann, 27 yds made · 88% expected
  • R. Sayeri, 22 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: USC 7 for 50 yards, TCU 9 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:24 False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TCU +0.6 pts
Q2 14:37 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USC +0.6 pts
Q2 6:29 Illegal Formation on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% USC +0.9 pts
Q2 4:56 Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards +2% USC +0.9 pts
Q3 14:04 Holding on USC, 10 yards +3% TCU +1.1 pts
Q3 13:32 Face Mask on TCU, 15 yards +4% USC +1.6 pts
Q3 8:02 Illegal Block on TCU, 8 yards +2% USC +0.5 pts
Q3 7:16 Illegal Snap on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% USC +0.8 pts
Q3 1:17 False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TCU +0.6 pts
Q3 0:48 Holding on TCU, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% USC +2.7 pts
Q4 14:42 Unnecessary Roughness on USC, 15 yards +2% TCU +0.9 pts
Q4 11:46 Illegal Snap on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TCU +0.5 pts
Q4 9:37 Illegal Substitution on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USC +0.6 pts
Q4 8:53 Illegal Snap on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% USC +1.5 pts
Q4 4:24 False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TCU +0.5 pts
Q4 2:50 Illegal Substitution on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TCU +0.3 pts

When it happened

TCU’s chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while TCU was ahead in it, below while USC was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:15 TCU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% TCU TCU: Touchdown
2 Q2 5:15 TCU converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +5% TCU TCU: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:19 TCU converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% TCU TCU: Punt
4 Q3 0:49 USC converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedUSC’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +13% USC USC: Field goal
5 Q3 0:48 Holding on TCU, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% USC USC: Field goal
6 Q4 13:08 USC converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% USC USC: Field goal
7 Q4 2:50 USC was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedIllegal Substitution on USC, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% TCU USC: Punt
8 OT R. Sayeri made a 22-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +5% TCU –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

USC 30% · TCU 70%

Final margin
TCU by 3
Luck in points
0.3 for USC
Luck-adjusted margin
TCU by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
USC 66% · TCU 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · USC · TCU

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