Kinder's Texas Bowl · December 27, 2025
LSU vs Houston, Kinder's Texas Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Houston beat LSU 38–35, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Houston wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Houston was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:29 left): LSU converted 3rd & 10, worth 13 points of win probability to LSU.
Final
 LSU Tigers | 35 |
|---|---|
 Houston Cougars | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Houston lucky · −40 LSU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. LSU wins 4, Houston wins 6.
- 1 LSU 28 HOU 7
- 2 LSU 41 HOU 28
- 3 LSU 23 HOU 16
- 4 LSU 34 HOU 31
- 5 LSU 34 HOU 37
- 6 LSU 24 HOU 30
- 7 LSU 24 HOU 33
- 8 LSU 31 HOU 45
- 9 LSU 28 HOU 48
- 10 LSU 21 HOU 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
LSU wins 40% of them, Houston 60%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| LSU by 17+ | 10.4% |
| LSU by 9–16 | 11.6% |
| LSU by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 15.1% |
| Houston by 17+ | 18.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Ramos, 44 yds missed · 68% expected
- E. Sanchez, 25 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: LSU 9 for 95 yards, Houston 4 for 29 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:48 | Face Mask on LSU, 15 yards | +3% HOU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 10:48 | Face Mask on LSU, 8 yards | +4% LSU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 10:48 | Offside on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Pass Interference on LSU, 15 yards | +2% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Ineligible Downfield on LSU, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% HOU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:34 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% LSU +2.2 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | Pass Interference on LSU, 15 yards | +3% HOU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on LSU, 7 yards | +10% LSU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 13:31 | Illegal Substitution on Houston, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:29 | Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yards | +4% LSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:48 | Horse Collar Tackle on LSU, 15 yards | +5% HOU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:22 | Illegal Block on LSU, 10 yards | 0% HOU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Houston’s chance of winning
As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 15:00 | Houston converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedHouston converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedPass Interference on LSU, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Houston, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 8:14 | Houston was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedHouston was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedLSU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedLSU was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedLSU converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedLSU fumbled and Houston recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% LSU | HOU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 1:34 | False Start on Houston, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% LSU | LSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:30 | Pass Interference on LSU, 15 yardsJudgment callsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on LSU, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +6% LSU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 9:31 | Houston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 1:29 | LSU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedPass Interference on Houston, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +13% LSU | LSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 14:48 | Houston converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedHouston converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedHouston was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedHorse Collar Tackle on LSU, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +10% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 7:42 | LSU was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedE. Sanchez made a 25-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him | +6% LSU | LSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
LSU 34% · Houston 66%
- Final margin
- Houston by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- LSU 40% · Houston 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
LSU · 
Houston
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