luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl · December 31, 2025

Michigan vs Texas, Cheez-It Citrus Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Texas beat Michigan 41–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Texas was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:09 left): Holding on Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to Michigan.

Final

Michigan Wolverines 27
Texas Longhorns 41

December 31, 2025 · Camping World Stadium · Closing line: Texas −4.5

Luck index +7 Texas about even · −7 Michigan

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Michigan wins 1, Texas wins 9.

  1. 1 MICH 24 TEX 17
  2. 2 MICH 35 TEX 38
  3. 3 MICH 9 TEX 20
  4. 4 MICH 17 TEX 31
  5. 5 MICH 10 TEX 27
  6. 6 MICH 14 TEX 34
  7. 7 MICH 9 TEX 33
  8. 8 MICH 3 TEX 31
  9. 9 MICH 7 TEX 40
  10. 10 MICH 7 TEX 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Michigan wins 7% of them, Texas 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Michigan by 17+0.7%
Michigan by 9–161.9%
Michigan by 1–83.8%
Level after regulation1.0%
Texas by 1–812.7%
Texas by 9–1614.4%
Texas by 17+65.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to Michigan: the final margin was Texas by 14, without the luck Texas by 14.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Shipley, 43 yds made · 69% expected
  • D. Zvada, 53 yds made · 52% expected
  • D. Zvada, 45 yds missed · 67% expected
  • D. Zvada, 31 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Shipley, 51 yds made · 55% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Michigan 9 for 95 yards, Texas 11 for 100 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:01 False Start on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEX +0.7 pts
Q1 5:57 Face Mask on Texas, 15 yards +5% MICH +2.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Offside on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEX +1.4 pts
Q2 9:32 Holding on Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% MICH +2.4 pts
Q2 8:32 Delay of Game on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MICH +1.1 pts
Q2 7:58 Face Mask on Michigan, 15 yards +4% TEX +1.6 pts
Q2 6:43 Illegal Block on Texas, 10 yards +1% MICH +0.6 pts
Q2 6:00 Holding on Texas, 10 yards +2% MICH +0.6 pts
Q3 12:25 Holding on Michigan, 10 yards +3% TEX +1.1 pts
Q3 9:09 Holding on Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% MICH +3.2 pts
Q3 8:09 Holding on Texas, 10 yards +2% MICH +0.6 pts
Q3 7:07 Roughing the Passer on Michigan, 15 yards +7% TEX +2.2 pts
Q3 6:11 Pass Interference on Michigan, 15 yards +2% TEX +0.7 pts
Q3 3:49 Offside on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MICH +0.5 pts
Q3 3:27 Personal Foul on Michigan, 15 yards +6% TEX +1.8 pts
Q3 0:34 Delay of Game on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEX +0.8 pts
Q4 14:18 Holding on Michigan, 10 yards +4% TEX +1.0 pts
Q4 7:06 False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MICH +0.5 pts
Q4 5:15 Unnecessary Roughness on Texas, 15 yards +4% MICH +0.9 pts
Q4 3:42 False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MICH +0.8 pts

When it happened

Texas’s chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Texas was ahead in it, below while Michigan was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:32 Holding on Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% MICH MICH: Punt
2 Q2 8:25 Texas converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% TEX TEX: Touchdown
3 Q3 9:09 Holding on Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% MICH MICH: Turnover
4 Q3 7:07 Roughing the Passer on Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% TEX TEX: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:27 Personal Foul on Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% TEX TEX: Punt
6 Q3 2:01 Texas was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected +6% MICH TEX: Punt
7 Q4 12:07 Michigan converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% MICH MICH: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:43 Texas converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +9% TEX TEX: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Michigan 3% · Texas 97%

Final margin
Texas by 14
Luck in points
0.4 for Michigan
Luck-adjusted margin
Texas by 14.4
Replay with same day's form
Michigan 7% · Texas 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Michigan · Texas

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