luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl · December 30, 2025

Tennessee vs Illinois, Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Illinois beat Tennessee 30–28, but the replays lean toward Tennessee: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Illinois.

Before kickoff Tennessee was a 58% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q3, 11:48 left): Return touchdown by Illinois, worth 43 points of win probability to Illinois.

Final

Tennessee Volunteers 28
Illinois Fighting Illini 30

December 30, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Tennessee −3

Luck index +64 Illinois very lucky · −64 Tennessee

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Tennessee wins 6, Illinois wins 4.

  1. 1 TENN 27 ILL 3
  2. 2 TENN 30 ILL 13
  3. 3 TENN 23 ILL 10
  4. 4 TENN 21 ILL 13
  5. 5 TENN 26 ILL 21
  6. 6 TENN 27 ILL 24
  7. 7 TENN 7 ILL 10
  8. 8 TENN 21 ILL 28
  9. 9 TENN 17 ILL 28
  10. 10 TENN 7 ILL 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Tennessee wins 64% of them, Illinois 36%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Illinois by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Tennessee by 17+17.2%
Tennessee by 9–1616.8%
Tennessee by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation8.1%
Illinois by 1–818.4%
Illinois by 9–1610.3%
Illinois by 17+6.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.4 points to Tennessee: the final margin was Illinois by 2, without the luck Illinois by 14.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Gilbert, 39 yds missed · 76% expected
  • D. Olano, 30 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Olano, 28 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Olano, 29 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Tennessee 4 for 46 yards, Illinois 4 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Personal Foul on Tennessee, 15 yards +3% ILL +1.6 pts
Q1 15:00 False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TENN +0.4 pts
Q1 6:16 False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TENN +0.8 pts
Q1 6:16 False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TENN +0.9 pts
Q1 6:16 False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +16% TENN +9.1 pts
Q2 3:28 Unnecessary Roughness on Tennessee, 15 yards +4% ILL +1.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Face Mask on Tennessee, 12 yards +4% ILL +1.5 pts
Q4 1:51 Offside on Tennessee, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% ILL +0.5 pts

When it happened

Illinois’s chance of winning

As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Illinois was ahead in it, below while Tennessee was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:15 Illinois was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedTennessee converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedTennessee converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +12% TENN ILL: End of half
2 Q1 6:16 Illinois converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedFalse Start on Illinois, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Illinois, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Illinois, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +18% TENN ILL: End of half
3 Q2 8:59 Illinois was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedTennessee converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% TENN ILL: Field goal
4 Q2 3:28 M. Gilbert missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for himUnnecessary Roughness on Tennessee, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% ILL TENN: End of half
5 Q2 2:00 Illinois converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedFace Mask on Tennessee, 12 yardsJudgment calls +7% ILL ILL: Field goal
6 Q3 11:48 The game turned hereTennessee was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedTennessee fumbled and Illinois recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by IllinoisSpecial teams +43% ILL TENN: Touchdown
7 Q4 15:00 Tennessee converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedTennessee was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedTennessee converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +8% TENN TENN: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:58 Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedIllinois converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +18% TENN ILL: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Tennessee 9% · Illinois 91%

Final margin
Illinois by 2
Luck in points
12.4 for Tennessee
Luck-adjusted margin
Illinois by 14.4
Replay with same day's form
Tennessee 64% · Illinois 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Tennessee · Illinois

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