luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

ReliaQuest Bowl · December 31, 2025

Iowa vs Vanderbilt, ReliaQuest Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Iowa beat Vanderbilt 34–27, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Iowa wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Iowa.

Before kickoff Vanderbilt was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:43 left): Illegal Kick on Vanderbilt, 5 yards, worth 26 points of win probability to Iowa.

Final

Iowa Hawkeyes 34
Vanderbilt Commodores 27

December 31, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Vanderbilt −3

Luck index +53 Iowa lucky · −53 Vanderbilt

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Iowa wins 5, Vanderbilt wins 5.

  1. 1 IOWA 56 VAN 31
  2. 2 IOWA 24 VAN 7
  3. 3 IOWA 28 VAN 17
  4. 4 IOWA 20 VAN 14
  5. 5 IOWA 24 VAN 21
  6. 6 IOWA 17 VAN 20
  7. 7 IOWA 14 VAN 21
  8. 8 IOWA 20 VAN 31
  9. 9 IOWA 14 VAN 31
  10. 10 IOWA 3 VAN 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Iowa wins 47% of them, Vanderbilt 53%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Iowa by 17+13.5%
Iowa by 9–1612.6%
Iowa by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation5.5%
Vanderbilt by 1–818.4%
Vanderbilt by 9–1614.8%
Vanderbilt by 17+16.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.5 points to Iowa: the final margin was Iowa by 7, without the luck Vanderbilt by 3.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. Taylor, 41 yds made · 76% expected
  • D. Stevens, 47 yds made · 62% expected
  • D. Stevens, 44 yds made · 68% expected
  • B. Taylor, 37 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Iowa 5 for 53 yards, Vanderbilt 11 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:52 False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% VAN +0.8 pts
Q1 14:00 Personal Foul on Vanderbilt, 13 yards +3% IOWA +1.5 pts
Q1 12:48 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards +1% IOWA +0.6 pts
Q1 7:15 Offside on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +0.5 pts
Q2 12:33 Roughing the Passer on Iowa, 15 yards +4% VAN +1.6 pts
Q2 5:58 Holding on Iowa, 10 yards +3% VAN +1.3 pts
Q2 2:32 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IOWA +0.4 pts
Q2 2:07 Pass Interference on Iowa, 8 yards +4% VAN +1.4 pts
Q2 1:27 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards +2% IOWA +0.8 pts
Q2 0:48 Intentional Grounding on Vanderbilt, 0 yards +1% VAN +0.5 pts
Q2 0:43 Illegal Kick on Vanderbilt, 5 yards +26% IOWA +3.4 pts
Q3 12:42 Illegal Formation on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IOWA +1.3 pts
Q4 14:10 Offside on Vanderbilt, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% IOWA 0.0 pts
Q4 13:53 Offside on Vanderbilt, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% IOWA 0.0 pts
Q4 4:08 Roughing the Passer on Iowa, 15 yards 0% VAN +0.8 pts
Q4 3:58 Intentional Grounding on Vanderbilt, 8 yards +1% IOWA +0.5 pts

When it happened

Vanderbilt’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Vanderbilt was ahead in it, below while Iowa was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:00 Vanderbilt was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +4% IOWA VAN: Punt
2 Q2 12:33 Roughing the Passer on Iowa, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% VAN VAN: Field goal
3 Q2 9:44 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% VAN VAN: Field goal
4 Q2 6:23 Iowa converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% IOWA IOWA: Punt
5 Q2 0:43 Illegal Kick on Vanderbilt, 5 yardsJudgment calls +26% IOWA IOWA: Touchdown
6 Q3 5:23 Vanderbilt was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +6% IOWA VAN: Touchdown
7 Q4 9:55 Iowa converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% IOWA IOWA: Field goal
8 Q4 5:41 Iowa converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% IOWA IOWA: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Iowa 27% · Vanderbilt 73%

Final margin
Iowa by 7
Luck in points
10.5 for Iowa
Luck-adjusted margin
Vanderbilt by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Iowa 47% · Vanderbilt 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Iowa · Vanderbilt

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