luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl · December 27, 2025

Penn State vs Clemson, Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Penn State beat Clemson 22–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

An off day for Clemson: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Penn State it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%. The numbers

Before kickoff Clemson was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:37 left): Pass Interference on Penn State, 15 yards, worth 12 points of win probability to Clemson.

Final

Penn State Nittany Lions 22
Clemson Tigers 10

December 27, 2025 · Yankee Stadium · Closing line: Clemson −2.5

Luck index +22 Penn State about even · −22 Clemson

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penn State wins 8, Clemson wins 2.

  1. 1 PSU 42 CLEM 10
  2. 2 PSU 31 CLEM 7
  3. 3 PSU 33 CLEM 14
  4. 4 PSU 26 CLEM 10
  5. 5 PSU 28 CLEM 16
  6. 6 PSU 29 CLEM 20
  7. 7 PSU 14 CLEM 8
  8. 8 PSU 10 CLEM 7
  9. 9 PSU 10 CLEM 13
  10. 10 PSU 8 CLEM 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Clemson

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Penn State it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%.

32 points apart for Clemson: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Penn State offenseEPA per play gained −0.03 +0.09 worse by 0.12
Penn State defenseEPA per play allowed −0.16 +0.06 better by 0.22
Clemson offenseEPA per play gained −0.16 +0.10 worse by 0.26
Clemson defenseEPA per play allowed −0.03 +0.06 better by 0.09

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Penn State wins 78% of them, Clemson 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Penn State by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penn State by 17+30.8%
Penn State by 9–1624.9%
Penn State by 1–821.8%
Level after regulation1.7%
Clemson by 1–812.8%
Clemson by 9–165.9%
Clemson by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to Penn State: the final margin was Penn State by 12, without the luck Penn State by 3.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Barker, 22 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Hauser, 33 yds missed · 83% expected
  • N. Hauser, 48 yds made · 57% expected
  • R. Barker, 48 yds made · 61% expected
  • R. Barker, 43 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Penn State 3 for 35 yards, Clemson 1 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:34 Illegal Shift on Penn State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% CLEM +2.0 pts
Q3 9:37 Pass Interference on Penn State, 15 yards +9% CLEM +2.9 pts
Q3 9:37 False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PSU +0.8 pts
Q4 12:51 Pass Interference on Penn State, 15 yards +3% CLEM +1.0 pts

When it happened

Clemson’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Clemson was ahead in it, below while Penn State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:40 Clemson was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedPenn State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% PSU CLEM: End of half
2 Q1 6:34 Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 253rd & 4th downs · 10% expectedIllegal Shift on Penn State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +4% CLEM PSU: Punt
3 Q2 6:08 N. Hauser missed a 33-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +8% PSU CLEM: Field goal
4 Q2 3:42 Clemson converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% CLEM CLEM: Field goal
5 Q2 0:56 N. Hauser made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 5 of 9 from 45+ before +4% CLEM CLEM: Punt
6 Q3 15:00 Penn State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedPenn State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +5% PSU PSU: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 9:37 Penn State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedClemson converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedClemson was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedPass Interference on Penn State, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Clemson, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% CLEM PSU: Field goal
8 Q4 12:51 Penn State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedClemson was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedClemson converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedPenn State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedPass Interference on Penn State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% PSU PSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penn State 70% · Clemson 30%

Final margin
Penn State by 12
Luck in points
8.4 for Penn State
Luck-adjusted margin
Penn State by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Penn State 78% · Clemson 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Penn State · Clemson

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