Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress

Penn State Nittany Lions: luck and expected wins

Penn State is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 53rd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Penn State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Marshall	W 45–0	100%	0
Week 2	@ Temple	W 27–9	53%	+47
Week 3	vs Buffalo	W 55–13	100%	0
Week 4	vs Wisconsin	L 20–24	21%	−21

Wk 1 0 vs MRSH

Wk 2 +47 @ TEM

Wk 3 0 vs BUF

Wk 4 −21 vs WIS

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Penn State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 2	at Northwestern	Penn State by 2.2	55%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs USC	Penn State by 6.6	66%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Michigan	Penn State by 3.4	58%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Purdue	Penn State by 24.2	93%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Washington	Penn State by 6.9	66%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Minnesota	Penn State by 15.6	82%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Rutgers	Penn State by 23.1	91%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Maryland	Penn State by 17.2	85%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Penn State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.10	+4.1
Fumble bounces	−0.04	+1.5
3rd & 4th downs	−0.16	+8.7

Luckiest wins

Wins Penn State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	@ Rutgers	W 40–36	51%	+49
2026 Week 2	@ Temple	W 27–9	53%	+47
2025 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl	vs Clemson	W 22–10	78%	+22
2025 Week 12	@ Michigan State	W 28–10	95%	+5
2025 Week 1	vs Nevada	W 46–11	98%	+2

Unluckiest losses

Losses Penn State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 7	vs Northwestern	L 21–22	81%	−81
2025 Week 5	vs Oregon	L 24–30	61%	−61
2025 Week 11	vs Indiana	L 24–27	44%	−44
2025 Week 6	@ UCLA	L 37–42	41%	−41
2026 Week 4	vs Wisconsin	L 20–24	21%	−21

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	6–6	7.8	−1.8	1–5	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Nevada	W 46–11	98%	+2
Week 2	vs Florida International	W 34–0	99%	+1
Week 3	vs Villanova	W 52–6	100%	0
Week 5	vs Oregon	L 24–30	61%	−61
Week 6	@ UCLA	L 37–42	41%	−41
Week 7	vs Northwestern	L 21–22	81%	−81
Week 8	@ Iowa	L 24–25	5%	−5
Week 10	@ Ohio State	L 14–38	0%	0
Week 11	vs Indiana	L 24–27	44%	−44
Week 12	@ Michigan State	W 28–10	95%	+5
Week 13	vs Nebraska	W 37–10	100%	0
Week 14	@ Rutgers	W 40–36	51%	+49
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl	vs Clemson	W 22–10	78%	+22