luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Marshall at Penn State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Penn State beat Marshall 45–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Penn State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Penn State was a 94% favorite.

Final

Marshall Thundering Herd 0
Penn State Nittany Lions 45

September 5, 2026 · Beaver Stadium · Closing line: Penn State −23.5

Luck index 0 Penn State about even · 0 Marshall

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Marshall wins 0, Penn State wins 10.

  1. 1 MRSH 0 PSU 17
  2. 2 MRSH 3 PSU 27
  3. 3 MRSH 3 PSU 30
  4. 4 MRSH 0 PSU 31
  5. 5 MRSH 3 PSU 37
  6. 6 MRSH 0 PSU 38
  7. 7 MRSH 0 PSU 41
  8. 8 MRSH 0 PSU 45
  9. 9 MRSH 0 PSU 48
  10. 10 MRSH 7 PSU 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Marshall wins 0% of them, Penn State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Penn State by 45.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Marshall by 17+0.0%
Marshall by 9–160.0%
Marshall by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Penn State by 1–81.0%
Penn State by 9–163.5%
Penn State by 17+95.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.8 points to Penn State: the final margin was Penn State by 45, without the luck Penn State by 34.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Barker, 38 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Diaz Nicolas, 52 yds missed · 50% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Marshall 4 for 45 yards, Penn State 4 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:53 Sideline Interference on Marshall, 15 yards 0% PSU +0.9 pts
Q1 4:49 Holding on Penn State, 10 yards 0% MRSH +1.3 pts
Q1 4:49 Holding on Marshall, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% PSU +0.8 pts
Q2 15:00 Pass Interference on Marshall, 15 yards 0% PSU +1.6 pts
Q2 12:40 Face Mask on Penn State, 15 yards 0% MRSH +1.6 pts
Q2 1:18 False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PSU +0.5 pts
Q3 11:14 Holding on Penn State, 10 yards 0% PSU +2.0 pts
Q4 6:02 Holding on Penn State, 10 yards 0% MRSH +0.6 pts

When it happened

Penn State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Penn State was ahead in it, below while Marshall was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +1% MRSH PSU: Field goal
2 Q1 14:53 Sideline Interference on Marshall, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% PSU PSU: Field goal
3 Q1 12:26 Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedR. Barker made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +1% PSU MRSH: Punt
4 Q1 8:35 Penn State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +1% PSU PSU: Touchdown
5 Q1 8:32 Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +0% MRSH MRSH: Punt
6 Q1 7:16 Penn State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +0% PSU PSU: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:47 Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +0% MRSH PSU: Punt
8 Q2 1:18 Penn State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedMarshall converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on Marshall, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% PSU PSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Marshall 0% · Penn State 100%

Final margin
Penn State by 45
Luck in points
10.8 for Penn State
Luck-adjusted margin
Penn State by 34.2
Replay with same day's form
Marshall 0% · Penn State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

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