Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress

Marshall Thundering Herd: luck and expected wins

Marshall is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck added 1.6: the 2nd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 3–0.

2026, game by game

How often Marshall wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Penn State	L 0–45	0%	0
Week 2	vs Middle Tennessee	W 28–26	43%	+57
Week 3	@ Missouri State	W 30–24	22%	+78
Week 4	vs Gardner-Webb	W 36–35	81%	+19

Wk 1 0 @ PSU

Wk 2 +57 vs MTSU

Wk 3 +78 @ MOST

Wk 4 +19 vs GWEB

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Marshall win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at James Madison	James Madison by 25.6	5%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Coastal Carolina	Marshall by 2.8	57%
Week 8 · Oct 20	vs South Alabama	South Alabama by 1.7	46%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Old Dominion	Old Dominion by 7.7	32%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Georgia Southern	Georgia Southern by 7.0	34%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs App State	App State by 2.9	43%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Georgia State	Georgia State by 3.2	43%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at UL Monroe	Marshall by 9.3	71%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Marshall’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.50	+6.8
Fumble bounces	+0.04	+2.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.07	−8.8

Luckiest wins

Wins Marshall takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 3	@ Missouri State	W 30–24	22%	+78
2026 Week 2	vs Middle Tennessee	W 28–26	43%	+57
2025 Week 4	@ Middle Tennessee	W 42–28	47%	+53
2025 Week 8	vs Texas State	W 40–37	71%	+29
2026 Week 4	vs Gardner-Webb	W 36–35	81%	+19

Unluckiest losses

Losses Marshall would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 13	@ App State	L 24–26	87%	−87
2025 Week 5	@ Louisiana	L 51–54	71%	−71
2025 Week 14	vs Georgia Southern	L 19–24	69%	−69
2025 Week 11	vs James Madison	L 23–35	27%	−27
2025 Week 2	vs Missouri State	L 20–21	24%	−24

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	5–7	7.0	−2.0	1–4	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Georgia	L 7–45	0%	0
Week 2	vs Missouri State	L 20–21	24%	−24
Week 3	vs Eastern Kentucky	W 38–7	100%	0
Week 4	@ Middle Tennessee	W 42–28	47%	+53
Week 5	@ Louisiana	L 51–54	71%	−71
Week 7	vs Old Dominion	W 48–24	90%	+10
Week 8	vs Texas State	W 40–37	71%	+29
Week 10	@ Coastal Carolina	L 27–44	20%	−20
Week 11	vs James Madison	L 23–35	27%	−27
Week 12	@ Georgia State	W 30–18	93%	+7
Week 13	@ App State	L 24–26	87%	−87
Week 14	vs Georgia Southern	L 19–24	69%	−69