Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 34 of the 41 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Missouri State at Marshall, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri State beat Marshall 21–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Marshall: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Missouri State it would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%. The numbers
Before kickoff Marshall was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:17 left): Missouri State converted 3rd & 14, worth 12 points of win probability to Missouri State.
Final
 Missouri State Bears | 21 |
|---|---|
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Missouri State about even · −24 Marshall
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri State wins 8, Marshall wins 2.
- 1 MOST 38 MRSH 3
- 2 MOST 28 MRSH 3
- 3 MOST 35 MRSH 14
- 4 MOST 45 MRSH 28
- 5 MOST 21 MRSH 7
- 6 MOST 41 MRSH 31
- 7 MOST 20 MRSH 14
- 8 MOST 22 MRSH 20
- 9 MOST 17 MRSH 21
- 10 MOST 31 MRSH 43
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Marshall
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Missouri State it would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for Marshall: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.11 | worse by 0.01 |
| Missouri State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.16 | +0.09 | better by 0.25 |
| Marshall offenseEPA per play gained | −0.16 | +0.07 | worse by 0.23 |
| Marshall defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.06 | worse by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri State wins 76% of them, Marshall 24%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri State by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri State by 17+ | 35.4% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 19.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 13.0% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 6.7% |
| Marshall by 17+ | 3.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- Y. Obeid, 54 yds missed · 49% expected
- L. Quinn, 50 yds made · 54% expected
- L. Quinn, 33 yds made · 84% expected
- L. Quinn, 26 yds missed · 91% expected
Penalties: Missouri State 9 for 90 yards, Marshall 4 for 76 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:51 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MRSH +0.7 pts |
| Q1 11:51 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MOST +1.5 pts |
| Q1 10:56 | Holding on Marshall, 56 yards, wiping out the play | +6% MOST +2.8 pts |
| Q1 9:17 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 25 yards, wiping out the play | +1% MRSH +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:13 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 15 yards | +1% MRSH +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:02 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH 0.0 pts |
| Q1 5:02 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MRSH +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:22 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH 0.0 pts |
| Q1 4:22 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MRSH +1.4 pts |
| Q1 2:18 | Holding on Missouri State, 0 yards | 0% MOST 0.0 pts |
| Q3 13:23 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards | +1% MRSH +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:20 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% MRSH +3.9 pts |
| Q4 11:05 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +3% MOST +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Marshall’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:56 | Holding on Marshall, 56 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 1:14 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedMissouri State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% MOST | MOST: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 13:57 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedMissouri State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +4% MOST | MOST: End of half |
| 4 | Q2 11:07 | Marshall converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% MRSH | MRSH: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 13:20 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% MRSH | MRSH: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 12:27 | Missouri State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 5:55 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:17 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +12% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri State 5% · Marshall 95%
- Final margin
- Missouri State by 1
- Luck in points
- 12.3 for Missouri State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Marshall by 11.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri State 76% · Marshall 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 34 of the 41 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Missouri State · 
Marshall
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- Liberty at Jacksonville State JXST 34–24 · replay 60% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- McNeese at Louisiana UL 34–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Delaware at Colorado COLO 31–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Hawai'i HAW 37–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina CCU 13–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jackson State at Southern Miss USM 38–20 · replay 94% for the winner