Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Troy at Clemson, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Clemson beat Troy 27–16, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Clemson was a 97% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:05 left): Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Troy, 15 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to Clemson.
Final
 Troy Trojans | 16 |
|---|---|
 Clemson Tigers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Clemson about even · −21 Troy
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Troy wins 2, Clemson wins 8.
- 1 TROY 27 CLEM 13
- 2 TROY 27 CLEM 23
- 3 TROY 14 CLEM 17
- 4 TROY 10 CLEM 17
- 5 TROY 9 CLEM 19
- 6 TROY 17 CLEM 30
- 7 TROY 3 CLEM 20
- 8 TROY 6 CLEM 27
- 9 TROY 9 CLEM 33
- 10 TROY 0 CLEM 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Troy wins 21% of them, Clemson 79%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Clemson by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Troy by 17+ | 2.8% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 11.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.6% |
| Clemson by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Clemson by 9–16 | 20.7% |
| Clemson by 17+ | 33.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Taylor Renfroe, 37 yds made · 78% expected
- N. Hauser, 25 yds made · 90% expected
- P. McAteer, 51 yds missed · 52% expected
- N. Hauser, 30 yds made · 85% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Troy 9 for 79 yards, Clemson 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:37 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Troy, 15 yards | +1% CLEM +1.6 pts |
| Q1 0:00 | Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yards | 0% CLEM +1.1 pts |
| Q2 12:33 | Holding on Clemson, 10 yards | +2% TROY +1.3 pts |
| Q2 12:10 | False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:52 | Offside on Troy, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLEM 0.0 pts |
| Q2 1:11 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Troy, 15 yards | +2% CLEM +1.6 pts |
| Q3 13:10 | Pass Interference on Troy, 4 yards | +2% CLEM +1.1 pts |
| Q3 11:05 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Troy, 15 yards | +13% CLEM +5.1 pts |
| Q3 10:02 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLEM +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:42 | Delay of Game on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLEM +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:41 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLEM +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Clemson’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:02 | Clemson fumbled and Troy recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% TROY | CLEM: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 9:02 | Troy converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% TROY | TROY: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 7:13 | Troy was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% CLEM | TROY: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 6:58 | Troy missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the timeReturn touchdown by TroySpecial teams | +3% CLEM | TROY: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 11:05 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Troy, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +13% CLEM | CLEM: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 0:22 | Troy converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +6% TROY | TROY: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 12:41 | Troy was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% CLEM | TROY: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 12:13 | Troy was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% CLEM | TROY: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Troy 8% · Clemson 92%
- Final margin
- Clemson by 11
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for Clemson
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Clemson by 8.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Troy 21% · Clemson 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Troy · 
Clemson
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- McNeese at Louisiana UL 34–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Virginia at NC State NCSU 35–31 · replay 84% for the winner