Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Virginia at NC State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
NC State beat Virginia 35–31, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, NC State wins 8 of 10. Virginia had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Virginia.
Before kickoff NC State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:37 left): Virginia was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to NC State.
Final
 Virginia Cavaliers | 31 |
|---|---|
 NC State Wolfpack | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 NC State about even · −16 Virginia
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Virginia wins 2, NC State wins 8.
- 1 UVA 24 NCSU 10
- 2 UVA 24 NCSU 20
- 3 UVA 25 NCSU 27
- 4 UVA 17 NCSU 23
- 5 UVA 27 NCSU 37
- 6 UVA 17 NCSU 31
- 7 UVA 17 NCSU 35
- 8 UVA 27 NCSU 49
- 9 UVA 21 NCSU 48
- 10 UVA 7 NCSU 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Virginia wins 16% of them, NC State 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: NC State by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Virginia by 17+ | 2.3% |
| Virginia by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| Virginia by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| NC State by 1–8 | 22.2% |
| NC State by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| NC State by 17+ | 41.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Bettridge, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- W. Bettridge, 47 yds missed · 61% expected
Penalties: Virginia 3 for 20 yards, NC State 1 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:36 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NCSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:11 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% NCSU +3.4 pts |
| Q2 8:29 | Penalty on NC State, 15 yards | +4% UVA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 14:18 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NCSU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
NC State’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:11 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% NCSU | NCSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 13:20 | W. Bettridge missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 5 of 8 from 45+ before | +9% NCSU | UVA: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q4 10:15 | Virginia converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +9% UVA | UVA: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 7:16 | Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% NCSU | UVA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 6:37 | Virginia was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +13% NCSU | UVA: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 5:20 | NC State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +10% NCSU | NCSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 3:19 | NC State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +7% NCSU | NCSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 1:16 | Virginia converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +12% UVA | UVA: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Virginia 3% · NC State 97%
- Final margin
- NC State by 4
- Luck in points
- 6.2 for Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- NC State by 10.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Virginia 16% · NC State 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Virginia · 
NC State
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Stanford at BYU BYU 27–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Texas Southern at California CAL 35–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech VAN 44–20 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Pittsburgh PITT 45–17 · replay 100% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at Florida State FSU 77–3 · replay 100% for the winner