Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Central Michigan at Pittsburgh, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Pittsburgh beat Central Michigan 45–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Pittsburgh wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Pittsburgh was a 92% favorite.
Final
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 17 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Panthers | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Pittsburgh about even · 0 Central Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Central Michigan wins 0, Pittsburgh wins 10.
- 1 CMU 10 PITT 28
- 2 CMU 0 PITT 27
- 3 CMU 7 PITT 38
- 4 CMU 7 PITT 41
- 5 CMU 0 PITT 37
- 6 CMU 0 PITT 40
- 7 CMU 0 PITT 42
- 8 CMU 7 PITT 54
- 9 CMU 6 PITT 57
- 10 CMU 7 PITT 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Central Michigan wins 0% of them, Pittsburgh 100%. The line is what actually happened: Pittsburgh by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Central Michigan by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Central Michigan by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Central Michigan by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Pittsburgh by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Pittsburgh by 9–16 | 2.2% |
| Pittsburgh by 17+ | 97.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Graham, 41 yds made · 70% expected
- T. Butkowski, 43 yds made · 67% expected
Penalties: Central Michigan 9 for 75 yards, Pittsburgh 3 for 23 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:16 | Offside on Central Michigan, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:54 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | 0% CMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:34 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:11 | Face Mask on Central Michigan, 15 yards | +1% PITT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:08 | Offside on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:15 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | 0% CMU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Illegal Substitution on Pittsburgh, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% CMU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 7:33 | Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards | +1% PITT +1.9 pts |
| Q4 11:15 | Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 12 yards | 0% PITT +1.9 pts |
| Q4 8:00 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:18 | Roughing the Passer on Central Michigan, 15 yards | 0% PITT +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Pittsburgh’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:24 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +1% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:53 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +1% PITT | PITT: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 4:10 | Pittsburgh was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +1% CMU | PITT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:15 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +1% CMU | CMU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 12:11 | Face Mask on Central Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 7:33 | Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 6:01 | Central Michigan converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +1% CMU | CMU: End of half |
| 8 | Q3 3:35 | Central Michigan converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% CMU | CMU: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Central Michigan 0% · Pittsburgh 100%
- Final margin
- Pittsburgh by 28
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Central Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Pittsburgh by 32.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Central Michigan 0% · Pittsburgh 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Central Michigan · 
Pittsburgh
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Long Island University at Eastern Michigan LIU 28–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Virginia at NC State NCSU 35–31 · replay 84% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner