Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Miami (OH) at Rutgers, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Rutgers beat Miami (OH) 45–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Rutgers wins 5 of 10.
Rutgers won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Miami (OH) it would win 83% of the time; with this day’s form, 46%. The numbers
Before kickoff Rutgers was an 84% favorite.
Final
 Miami (OH) RedHawks | 17 |
|---|---|
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Rutgers lucky · −54 Miami (OH)
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Miami (OH) wins 5, Rutgers wins 5.
- 1 M-OH 52 RUTG 27
- 2 M-OH 45 RUTG 31
- 3 M-OH 38 RUTG 28
- 4 M-OH 35 RUTG 28
- 5 M-OH 21 RUTG 18
- 6 M-OH 14 RUTG 16
- 7 M-OH 30 RUTG 35
- 8 M-OH 31 RUTG 40
- 9 M-OH 24 RUTG 41
- 10 M-OH 13 RUTG 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Rutgers won on an off day
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Miami (OH) it would win 83% of the time; with this day’s form, 46%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for Rutgers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) offenseEPA per play gained | +0.43 | +0.04 | better by 0.39 |
| Miami (OH) defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.32 | +0.04 | worse by 0.28 |
| Rutgers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.32 | +0.09 | better by 0.23 |
| Rutgers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.43 | +0.14 | worse by 0.29 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Miami (OH) wins 54% of them, Rutgers 46%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rutgers by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Miami (OH) by 17+ | 15.4% |
| Miami (OH) by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| Miami (OH) by 1–8 | 19.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 24.7% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 10.7% |
| Rutgers by 17+ | 9.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Patel, 39 yds made · 76% expected
- D. Dzioban, 40 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Miami (OH) 8 for 79 yards, Rutgers 2 for 14 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:52 | Illegal Formation on Miami (OH), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% RUTG +1.5 pts |
| Q2 13:27 | Holding on Miami (OH), 7 yards | +2% RUTG +1.9 pts |
| Q2 6:16 | False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RUTG +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:25 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% M-OH +3.2 pts |
| Q3 10:37 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Rutgers, 4 yards | 0% M-OH +0.4 pts |
| Q3 5:10 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 21 yards, wiping out the play | +2% RUTG +4.3 pts |
| Q3 3:16 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 11 yards, wiping out the play | +1% RUTG +1.9 pts |
| Q3 1:02 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 10 yards | 0% RUTG +1.0 pts |
| Q4 8:30 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 15 yards | 0% RUTG +1.6 pts |
| Q4 5:42 | Delay of Game on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RUTG +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Rutgers’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:45 | Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% RUTG | M-OH: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:31 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +2% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:25 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +3% RUTG | RUTG: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 13:27 | Holding on Miami (OH), 7 yardsJudgment calls | +2% RUTG | RUTG: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 1:25 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% M-OH | M-OH: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 10:14 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 6:08 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +2% RUTG | RUTG: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 5:10 | Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 21 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% RUTG | RUTG: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Miami (OH) 0% · Rutgers 100%
- Final margin
- Rutgers by 28
- Luck in points
- 6.6 for Rutgers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rutgers by 21.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Miami (OH) 54% · Rutgers 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Miami (OH) · 
Rutgers
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Long Island University at Eastern Michigan LIU 28–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Southern Illinois at Purdue PUR 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Maryland MD 20–9 · replay 93% for the winner