Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: luck and expected wins

Rutgers is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.6 wins. Luck cost 1.6: the 2nd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–2.

2026, game by game

How often Rutgers wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Massachusetts	L 21–37	26%	−26
Week 2	@ Boston College	L 21–28	55%	−55
Week 3	vs USC	L 35–42	75%	−75
Week 4	vs Howard	W 58–7	100%	0

Wk 1 −26 vs MASS

Wk 2 −55 @ BC

Wk 3 −75 vs USC

Wk 4 0 vs HOW

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Rutgers win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Indiana	Indiana by 25.3	6%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Maryland	Maryland by 2.7	43%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Northwestern	Northwestern by 17.8	14%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Michigan	Michigan by 10.2	27%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Wisconsin	Wisconsin by 14.2	20%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Nebraska	Nebraska by 15.2	18%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Penn State	Penn State by 23.1	9%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Michigan State	Michigan State by 4.1	41%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Rutgers’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	−0.02	−1.6
Kicks	−0.13	−3.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.19	+1.7

Luckiest wins

Wins Rutgers takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 2	vs Miami (OH)	W 45–17	46%	+54
2025 Week 9	@ Purdue	W 27–24	48%	+52
2025 Week 1	vs Ohio	W 34–31	75%	+26
2025 Week 11	vs Maryland	W 35–20	96%	+4
2025 Week 3	vs Norfolk State	W 60–10	98%	+2

Unluckiest losses

Losses Rutgers would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 3	vs USC	L 35–42	75%	−75
2025 Week 5	@ Minnesota	L 28–31	59%	−59
2026 Week 2	@ Boston College	L 21–28	55%	−55
2025 Week 14	vs Penn State	L 36–40	49%	−49
2026 Week 1	vs Massachusetts	L 21–37	26%	−26

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	5–7	5.1	−0.1	2–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Ohio	W 34–31	75%	+26
Week 2	vs Miami (OH)	W 45–17	46%	+54
Week 3	vs Norfolk State	W 60–10	98%	+2
Week 4	vs Iowa	L 28–38	20%	−20
Week 5	@ Minnesota	L 28–31	59%	−59
Week 7	@ Washington	L 19–38	17%	−17
Week 8	vs Oregon	L 10–56	0%	0
Week 9	@ Purdue	W 27–24	48%	+52
Week 10	@ Illinois	L 13–35	0%	0
Week 11	vs Maryland	W 35–20	96%	+4
Week 13	@ Ohio State	L 9–42	0%	0
Week 14	vs Penn State	L 36–40	49%	−49