luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 10, 2025

Rutgers at Washington, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Washington beat Rutgers 38–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Washington was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:54 left): Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to Rutgers.

Final

Rutgers Scarlet Knights 19
Washington Huskies 38

October 10, 2025 · Husky Stadium · Closing line: Washington −9.5

Luck index +17 Washington about even · −17 Rutgers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rutgers wins 2, Washington wins 8.

  1. 1 RUTG 48 WASH 31
  2. 2 RUTG 31 WASH 27
  3. 3 RUTG 38 WASH 41
  4. 4 RUTG 35 WASH 41
  5. 5 RUTG 35 WASH 45
  6. 6 RUTG 24 WASH 38
  7. 7 RUTG 13 WASH 31
  8. 8 RUTG 24 WASH 45
  9. 9 RUTG 21 WASH 49
  10. 10 RUTG 14 WASH 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rutgers wins 17% of them, Washington 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rutgers by 17+2.6%
Rutgers by 9–165.1%
Rutgers by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation1.7%
Washington by 1–820.5%
Washington by 9–1617.4%
Washington by 17+44.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to Rutgers: the final margin was Washington by 19, without the luck Washington by 20.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Gross, 39 yds missed · 74% expected
  • J. Patel, 35 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Patel, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
  • J. Patel, 37 yds made · 77% expected
  • G. Gross, 36 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rutgers 4 for 31 yards, Washington 8 for 71 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:37 Holding on Washington, 7 yards +1% RUTG +0.4 pts
Q1 10:21 Illegal Substitution on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% RUTG +1.9 pts
Q1 5:43 False Start on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% WASH +0.4 pts
Q1 3:43 Illegal Formation on Washington, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% RUTG +0.2 pts
Q2 13:21 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington, 15 yards +4% WASH +1.8 pts
Q2 13:13 Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards +2% WASH +0.6 pts
Q2 11:54 Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards, wiping out the play +10% RUTG +4.1 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on Rutgers, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% WASH 0.0 pts
Q3 11:36 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Rutgers, 15 yards +2% WASH +0.9 pts
Q3 9:29 Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards +2% RUTG +1.3 pts
Q3 7:43 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% RUTG +0.6 pts
Q4 5:53 Offside on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% RUTG +0.8 pts

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while Rutgers was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:53 G. Gross missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him +5% RUTG WASH: Field goal
2 Q1 5:43 Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedFalse Start on Rutgers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% WASH RUTG: Field goal
3 Q1 1:59 J. Patel missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 6 of 10 from 45+ before +5% WASH RUTG: Punt
4 Q2 11:54 Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% RUTG RUTG: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 9:53 Rutgers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% RUTG RUTG: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 6:49 Rutgers was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +6% WASH RUTG: Field goal
7 Q2 5:26 Washington converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% WASH WASH: Turnover
8 Q3 11:36 Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Rutgers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% WASH RUTG: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rutgers 0% · Washington 100%

Final margin
Washington by 19
Luck in points
1.8 for Rutgers
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 20.8
Replay with same day's form
Rutgers 17% · Washington 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Rutgers · Washington

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